12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Sudtirol vs Modena Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Marco Druso, Bolzano
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Sudtirol, 29% draw, 28% Modena — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sudtirol at 43% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sudtirol4%Draw93%Modena3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Fabio Rispoli
22'
⚽Alvin Okoroassist: Salvatore Molina
35'
🔁Kevin Zeroliout: Rares Burnete
60'
Simone Tronchin
63'
🔁Alvin Okoroout: Kenny Meddy Mixtur
68'
🔁Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopesout: Simone Davì
68'
68'
🔁Simone Santoroout: Andrea Belotti
Giacomo Stabile
72'
77'
🔁Francesco Zampanoout: Antonio Imputato
77'
🔁Giacomo Olzerout: Paulo Azzi
🔁Fabio Rispoliout: Fabian Tait
79'
🔁Giacomo Stabileout: Davide Veroli
79'
88'
⚽Giuseppe Ambrosinoassist: Daniel Tonoli
90+2'
Daniel Tonoli
90+3'
🔁Giuseppe Casoout: Luca Bacchin
90+4'
🔁Alessandro Biancoout: Wisdom Acquah

Match stats — Sudtirol vs Modena

32%Possession68%
11Shots18
3On target8
5Corners8

Line-ups

Sudtirol 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PlizzariG
  • 4R. StivanelloD
  • 55A. GiorginiD
  • 27G. StabileD
  • 79S. MolinaM
  • 10Fabio RispoliM
  • 5S. TronchinM
  • 20B. BjarkasonM
  • 11Vasco LopesM
  • 18Kevin ZeroliM
  • 90A. OkoroF
Substitutes
  • 9R. BurneteF
  • 23F. DaviD
  • 46D. BrikM
  • 24S. DavìD
  • 25K. MixturF
  • 19M. PelliniD
  • 80Elias SchrootM
  • 21F. TaitM
  • 12Rok VadjunecG
Coach: D. Possanzini
Modena 4-3-3
  • 1L. ChichizolaG
  • 77D. TonoliD
  • 6S. NadorD
  • 20B. NielingD
  • 7F. ZampanoD
  • 8S. SantoroM
  • 16G. BrugmanM
  • 42A. BiancoM
  • 72G. OlzerF
  • 70G. AmbrosinoF
  • 10G. CasoF
Substitutes
  • 29L. BacchinF
  • 11A. BelottiF
  • 17K. BozhanajM
  • 22L. ConsiglioG
  • 27Paulo AzziM
  • 23F. FolinoD
  • 26A. ImputatoF
  • 9D. MontevagoF
  • 15Martino OderoD
Coach: D. Galloppa

Form going into Sudtirol vs Modena

Sudtirol

  • W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
  • W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026

Modena

  • L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Sudtirol422052+38
6Modena421163+37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Modena

  • 12 September 2026Sudtirol 1–1 ModenaSerie B
  • 11 April 2026Sudtirol 1–1 ModenaSerie B
  • 23 November 2025Modena 0–0 SudtirolSerie B
  • 29 December 2024Modena 0–0 SudtirolSerie B
  • 17 August 2024Sudtirol 2–1 ModenaSerie B
  • 27 April 2024Modena 1–0 SudtirolSerie B

Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Modena

Sudtirol

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Modena

  • G. Caso2 goals
  • G. Olzer2 goals
  • G. Ambrosino1 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.