Sudtirol vs Modena Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Sudtirol, 29% draw, 28% Modena — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sudtirol at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sudtirol vs Modena
Line-ups
- 22A. PlizzariG
- 4R. StivanelloD
- 55A. GiorginiD
- 27G. StabileD
- 79S. MolinaM
- 10Fabio RispoliM
- 5S. TronchinM
- 20B. BjarkasonM
- 11Vasco LopesM
- 18Kevin ZeroliM
- 90A. OkoroF
- 9R. BurneteF
- 23F. DaviD
- 46D. BrikM
- 24S. DavìD
- 25K. MixturF
- 19M. PelliniD
- 80Elias SchrootM
- 21F. TaitM
- 12Rok VadjunecG
- 1L. ChichizolaG
- 77D. TonoliD
- 6S. NadorD
- 20B. NielingD
- 7F. ZampanoD
- 8S. SantoroM
- 16G. BrugmanM
- 42A. BiancoM
- 72G. OlzerF
- 70G. AmbrosinoF
- 10G. CasoF
- 29L. BacchinF
- 11A. BelottiF
- 17K. BozhanajM
- 22L. ConsiglioG
- 27Paulo AzziM
- 23F. FolinoD
- 26A. ImputatoF
- 9D. MontevagoF
- 15Martino OderoD
Form going into Sudtirol vs Modena
Sudtirol
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
- W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026
Modena
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sudtirol | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 2 | Modena | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Modena
- 11 April 2026Sudtirol 1–1 ModenaSerie B
- 23 November 2025Modena 0–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 29 December 2024Modena 0–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 17 August 2024Sudtirol 2–1 ModenaSerie B
- 27 April 2024Modena 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Modena
Sudtirol
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Modena
GoalsAssists
- A. Belotti70
- G. Ambrosino33
- G. Caso32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sudtirol and Modena drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sudtirol at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Alvin Okoro 35' for Sudtirol, Giuseppe Ambrosino 88' for Modena.
How the call on Sudtirol v Modena has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Sudtirol's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sudtirol win43%▲ +2
- Draw29%=
- Modena win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.