24 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Baltika vs Rubin Premier League prediction & result

Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Baltika 1-1 Rubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 74% Baltika, 15% draw, 11% Rubin — fair odds of 1.35, 6.67 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Baltika at 74% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baltika1%Draw8%Rubin91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽J. Siweassist: I. Rozhkov
🔁A. Mouridout: I. Petrov
56'
🔁M. Petrovout: C. Offor
56'
67'
🔁V. Hodzaout: I. Saavedra
68'
🔁A. Arroyoout: R. Bezrukov
🔁B. Gilout: V. Pospelov
74'
🔁A. Mendelout: I. Belikov
74'
79'
A. Jukic
80'
🔁A. Jukicout: D. Maldonado
🔁N. Titkovout: K. Shiltsov
84'
84'
🔁I. Rozhkovout: M. Ignatiev
84'
🔁U. Iwuout: B. Jocic
⚽S. Varatynovassist: V. Pospelov
90'

Match stats — Baltika vs Rubin

55%Possession45%
16Shots10
4On target3
6Corners3

Line-ups

Baltika 5-4-1
  • 1E. LatyshonokG
  • 22M. BeveevD
  • 2S. VaratynovD
  • 24L. MouyokoloD
  • 21E. AndersonD
  • 4N. GassamaD
  • 73M. PetrovM
  • 8A. MendelM
  • 5A. MouridM
  • 11N. TitkovM
  • 91B. GilF
Substitutes
  • 44E. LyubakovG
  • 3I. KirschD
  • 64O. GasanbekovD
  • 68M. RyadnoD
  • 14S. KovacM
  • 7K. ShiltsovM
  • 42V. PospelovM
  • 57E. MamedovM
  • 10I. PetrovM
Coach: Andrey Talalaev
Rubin 5-4-1
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 5I. VujacicD
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 51I. RozhkovD
  • 12A. ArroyoM
  • 22V. HodzaM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 77A. JukicM
  • 43J. SiweF
Substitutes
  • 25A. NigmatullinG
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 70D. KabutovD
  • 3D. MaldonadoD
  • 18M. IgnatievD
  • 4K. NizhegorodovD
  • 8B. JocicM
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 11N. GripshiM
Coach: Franc Artiga

Form going into Baltika vs Rubin

Baltika

  • L1-2Spartak Moscow16 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Krylia Sovetov8 August 2026

Rubin

  • D1-1away to FC Rostov15 August 2026
  • D1-1FC Orenburg9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Baltika93241412+211
6Rubin92611211+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baltika vs Rubin

  • 24 August 2026Baltika 1–1 RubinPremier League
  • 2 May 2026Baltika 0–1 RubinPremier League
  • 19 October 2025Rubin 0–3 BaltikaPremier League
  • 10 December 2023Baltika 0–1 RubinPremier League
  • 27 October 2023Rubin 1–0 BaltikaPremier League
  • 20 May 2023Baltika 0–1 RubinFirst League

Leading scorers: Baltika and Rubin

Baltika

  • B. Gil3 goals1 assists

Rubin

  • J. Siwe3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.