24 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Fulham vs Chelsea Premier League prediction & result

Craven Cottage, London
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Fulham 2-3 Chelsea.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Fulham, 24% draw, 24% Chelsea — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fulham at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fulham0%Draw5%Chelsea95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Joao Pedroassist: C. Palmer
5'
Levi Colwill
12'
Roméo Lavia
⚽J. Kingassist: T. Castagne
23'
41'
⚽M. Rogersassist: M. Lacroix
49'
⚽C. Palmerassist: Joao Pedro
⚽G. Garcia
54'
65'
🔁J. Hatoout: P. Chavarria
65'
🔁R. Laviaout: E. Fernandez
🔁O. Bobbout: S. Charles
67'
🔁S. Bergeout: R. Sessegnon
73'
🔁C. Palaciosout: Kevin
73'
75'
Reece James
Calvin Bassey
76'
76'
🔁M. Gustoout: P. Neto
🔁A. Robinsonout: Rodrigo Muniz
82'
82'
🔁M. Rogersout: G. Quenda
83'
🔁C. Palmerout: Estêvão
Timothy Castagne
88'

Match stats — Fulham vs Chelsea

61%Possession39%
14Shots18
6On target6
6Corners4
1.35xG1.7

Goals against chances

Fulham2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chelsea3 from 1.70 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. LenoG
  • 21T. CastagneD
  • 3C. BasseyD
  • 4J. CuencaD
  • 33A. RobinsonD
  • 16S. BergeM
  • 17A. IwobiM
  • 14O. BobbM
  • 24J. KingM
  • 8C. PalaciosM
  • 7G. GarciaF
Substitutes
  • 23B. LecomteG
  • 2K. TeteD
  • 44L. De FougerollesD
  • 30R. SessegnonM
  • 32E. Smith RoweM
  • 19S. CharlesM
  • 6H. ReedM
  • 11KevinF
  • 9Rodrigo MunizF
Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa
Chelsea 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. SanchezG
  • 34J. AcheampongD
  • 5M. LacroixD
  • 6L. ColwillD
  • 27M. GustoM
  • 24R. JamesM
  • 45R. LaviaM
  • 21J. HatoM
  • 10C. PalmerF
  • 17M. RogersF
  • 9Joao PedroF
Substitutes
  • 39M. PendersG
  • 29P. ChavarriaD
  • 8E. FernandezM
  • 4V. BarcoM
  • 18D. WelbeckF
  • 7P. NetoF
  • 11J. GittensF
  • 41EstêvãoF
  • 23G. QuendaM
Coach: Xabi Alonso

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Fulham401347-31
6Chelsea4211109+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fulham vs Chelsea

  • 24 August 2026Fulham 2–3 ChelseaPremier League
  • 7 January 2026Fulham 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
  • 30 August 2025Chelsea 2–0 FulhamPremier League
  • 20 April 2025Fulham 1–2 ChelseaPremier League
  • 26 December 2024Chelsea 1–2 FulhamPremier League
  • 13 January 2024Chelsea 1–0 FulhamPremier League

Leading scorers: Fulham and Chelsea

Fulham

  • Joshua King2 goals

Chelsea

  • João Pedro3 goals3 assists
  • M. Rogers3 goals1 assists
  • C. Palmer2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.