23 August 2026, 12:15 UTC

Dynamo vs Rodina Moskva Premier League prediction & result

VTB Arena, Moscow
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Dynamo 3-1 Rodina Moskva.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Dynamo, 14% draw, 15% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 1.41, 7.14 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dynamo at 71% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dynamo99%Draw1%Rodina Moskva0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Timofey Marinkin
24'
27'
Stanislav Bessmertniy
31'
⚽I. Pozo
⚽K. Tyukavinassist: M. Osipenko
38'
🔁T. Marinkinout: D. Glebov
39'
🔁L. Zaydenzalout: J. Caceres
46'
⚽K. Tyukavin
50'
⚽A. Miranchukassist: Bitello
56'
🔁A. Miranchukout: L. Chavez
58'
58'
🔁A. Gordyushenkoout: S. Bakaev
58'
🔁A. Gharibyanout: I. Timoshenko
Yaroslav Gladyshev
69'
69'
🔁S. Bessmertniyout: I. Dyatlov
69'
🔁R. Fishchenkoout: K. Ushatov
🔁D. Skopintsevout: Rubens
77'
🔁K. Tyukavinout: I. Sergeev
77'
80'
🔁Y. Reynaout: K. Cissoko
David Ricardo
83'
85'
Iker Pozo
Ivan Sergeev
90+2'

Match stats — Dynamo vs Rodina Moskva

64%Possession36%
22Shots7
10On target2
5Corners2

Line-ups

Dynamo 4-3-3
  • 1K. RasulovG
  • 56L. ZaydenzalD
  • 55M. OsipenkoD
  • 57David RicardoD
  • 7D. SkopintsevD
  • 21A. MiranchukM
  • 60T. MarinkinM
  • 10BitelloM
  • 91Y. GladyshevF
  • 70K. TyukavinF
  • 11Arthur GomesF
Substitutes
  • 31I. LeshchukG
  • 4J. CaceresD
  • 6R. FernandezD
  • 8RubensM
  • 24L. ChavezM
  • 88V. OkishorM
  • 15D. GlebovM
  • 33I. SergeevF
  • 17U. BabaevF
Coach: Sandro Schwarz
Rodina Moskva 4-4-2
  • 13S. VolkovG
  • 80S. BessmertniyD
  • 19D. TananeevD
  • 26A. MeshchaninovD
  • 3L. GoglichidzeD
  • 72A. GordyushenkoM
  • 6R. FishchenkoM
  • 8I. PozoM
  • 9A. MaksimenkoM
  • 77A. GharibyanF
  • 10Y. ReynaF
Substitutes
  • 71I. SvinovG
  • 1S. AydarovG
  • 55M. KrizanD
  • 88A. SokolD
  • 49I. DyatlovD
  • 38L. MusaevM
  • 5A. EgorychevM
  • 23K. UshatovM
  • 17S. BakaevM
Coach: Juan Diaz

Form going into Dynamo vs Rodina Moskva

Dynamo

  • L0-3away to Zenit16 August 2026

Rodina Moskva

  • D3-3Akron15 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Zenit9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Dynamo8512118+316
14Rodina Moskva91261022-125

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dynamo vs Rodina Moskva

  • 23 August 2026Dynamo 3–1 Rodina MoskvaPremier League

Leading scorers: Dynamo and Rodina Moskva

Dynamo

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Rodina Moskva

  • A. Maksimenko3 goals1 assists
  • Iker Pozo2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.