Banfield vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Banfield 2-3 River Plate.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Banfield, 28% draw, 35% River Plate — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Banfield at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Banfield vs River Plate
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50D. RodriguezG
- 24S. LopezD
- 37R. MalancaD
- 6N. MerianoD
- 27I. AbrahamD
- 13B. OviedoM
- 18F. MedinaM
- 35N. PaisM
- 20T. AdoryanM
- 28M. HernandezF
- 22A. MachadoF
- 25G. SantilliG
- 34S. DanieleD
- 19L. CanoD
- 4J. L. AlfaroD
- 5S. EsquivelM
- 70M. ArteagaM
- 10L. GomezM
- 11F. AlvarezM
- 30F. AnselmoF
- 41S. BeltranG
- 29G. MontielD
- 28L. Martinez QuartaD
- 30N. OtamendiD
- 21M. AcunaD
- 15Fausto VeraM
- 50T. AndradaM
- 23T. AlmadaM
- 10A. CorreaM
- 26T. GalvanM
- 9S. DriussiF
- 33E. CenturionG
- 20G. GonzalezD
- 3F. OrtegaD
- 13L. RiveroD
- 8M. ArambarriM
- 24J. MezaM
- 25L. PereyraF
- 44L. SilvaM
- 19R. BorreF
Form going into Banfield vs River Plate
Banfield
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Newell's Old Boys23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Racing Club14 August 2026
- L0-2Belgrano Cordoba10 August 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1 August 2026
- W3-2Sarmiento Junin28 July 2026
River Plate
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Velez Sarsfield23 August 2026
- W2-0Argentinos Juniors16 August 2026
- L0-1away to Tigre8 August 2026
- L0-1Rosario Central2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Gimnasia La Plata29 July 2026
What these results say
- River Plate failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- River Plate conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for River Plate had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Banfield | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 15 |
| 4 | River Plate | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Banfield vs River Plate
- 26 February 2026River Plate 3–1 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 November 2024River Plate 3–1 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 February 2024River Plate 1–1 BanfieldCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 25 September 2023Banfield 1–1 River PlateCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 12 June 2023Banfield 1–4 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 February 2023Banfield 2–3 River PlateTrofeo de Campeones de la Superliga
Leading scorers: Banfield and River Plate
Banfield
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
River Plate won 3–2 at Banfield. The model had leaned towards a win for Banfield at 37% and given a win for River Plate 35%. The goals: S. Driussi 32' for River Plate, T. Almada (penalty) 41' for River Plate, B. Sepulveda 64' for Banfield, A. Correa 69' for River Plate, B. Sepulveda 84' for Banfield. On expected goals it finished 1.17–3.26.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.