30 August 2026, 22:15 UTC

Independiente vs Gimnasia Mendoza Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

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Full time0 – 3

Final score: Independiente 0-3 Gimnasia Mendoza.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Independiente, 29% draw, 30% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Independiente at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Independiente0%Draw1%Gimnasia Mendoza99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Luciano Cingolani
Leonardo Godoy
38'
42'
⚽E. Fernandezassist: F. Lencioni
53'
⚽F. Lencioniassist: E. Fernandez
🔁M. Gutierrezout: C. Avila
59'
🔁J. Palaisout: M. Abaldo
59'
60'
⚽F. Lencioniassist: E. Fernandez
63'
🔁E. Fernandezout: B. Andrada
63'
🔁L. Cingolaniout: M. Vargas
65'
🔁A. Modicaout: I. Sabatini
🔁L. Godoyout: J. Fedorco
77'
🔁L. Millanout: M. Meza
77'
79'
🔁F. Antoniniout: N. Barboza
79'
🔁T. O'Connorout: S. Rodriguez
🔁F. Zabalaout: R. Martino
87'

Match stats — Independiente vs Gimnasia Mendoza

58%Possession42%
11Shots11
4On target4
7Corners4
0.89xG0.65

Goals against chances

Independiente0 from 0.89 xGless than the chances were worth
Gimnasia Mendoza3 from 0.65 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Independiente 4-3-3
  • 33R. ReyG
  • 29L. GodoyD
  • 26K. LomonacoD
  • 35J. ArrayagoD
  • 22F. ZabalaD
  • 14L. MillanM
  • 23I. MarconeM
  • 7S. MontielM
  • 28M. GutierrezF
  • 34F. TemponeF
  • 24J. PalaisF
Substitutes
  • 77S. MeleG
  • 2F. CalderonD
  • 13J. FedorcoD
  • 8M. MezaF
  • 20F. CruzM
  • 10L. CabralM
  • 32D. MartinezM
  • 16M. Perez CurciM
  • 40J. VelardezD
Coach: Jadson Viera
Gimnasia Mendoza 4-2-3-1
  • 23C. RigamontiG
  • 32L. ParedesD
  • 2D. MondinoD
  • 4E. MunozD
  • 3M. RecaldeD
  • 21F. AntoniniM
  • 28T. O'ConnorM
  • 26F. LencioniM
  • 30E. FernandezM
  • 7L. CingolaniM
  • 9A. ModicaF
Substitutes
  • 31L. PetruchiG
  • 42L. CarreraM
  • 16G. GuiffreyD
  • 36I. CortezD
  • 19J. CeballosM
  • 5N. BarbozaM
  • 33B. AndradaF
  • 8M. VargasF
  • 11S. RodriguezF
Coach: Ariel Broggi

Form going into Independiente vs Gimnasia Mendoza

Independiente

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Independiente Rivadavia22 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Lanus17 August 2026
  • L0-1Platense9 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield3 August 2026
  • W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026

Gimnasia Mendoza

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Gimnasia La Plata22 August 2026
  • W3-1Talleres Cordoba18 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba9 August 2026
  • W2-0Union Santa Fe1 August 2026
  • L0-1away to San Lorenzo28 July 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Independiente had two goals or fewer.
  • Gimnasia Mendoza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Independiente166551516-123
8Gimnasia Mendoza166461817+122

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Independiente vs Gimnasia Mendoza

  • 25 February 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 1–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 29 June 2025Gimnasia Mendoza 1–2 IndependienteCopa Argentina

Leading scorers: Independiente and Gimnasia Mendoza

Independiente

GoalsAssists

  • G. Ávalos115

Gimnasia Mendoza

GoalsAssists

  • A. Módica140

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gimnasia Mendoza won 3–0 at Independiente. The model had leaned towards a win for Independiente at 41% and given a win for Gimnasia Mendoza 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: E. Fernandez 42' for Gimnasia Mendoza, F. Lencioni 53' for Gimnasia Mendoza, F. Lencioni 60' for Gimnasia Mendoza. On expected goals it finished 0.89–0.65.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.