30 August 2026, 12:00 UTC

AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Strawberry Arena, Solna
Full time3 – 2

Final score: AIK Stockholm 3-2 Hammarby FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% AIK Stockholm, 27% draw, 41% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hammarby FF at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AIK Stockholm94%Draw6%Hammarby FF0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Wilmer Olofsson
11'
14'
⚽F. Adjei
⚽L. Carlstrandassist: K. Filling
15'
26'
⚽Paulos Abraham (pen)
28'
🔁A. Boudriout: T. Tekie
Abdihakin Ali
33'
🔁D. Besirovicout: L. Camara
41'
45'
⚽P. Abrahamassist: V. Lind
Yannick Geiger
48'
Ladji Camara
52'
🔁A. Mujanicout: A. Kouame
56'
59'
Victor Eriksson
65'
🔁V. Erikssonout: I. Fofana
65'
🔁F. Adjeiout: O. Johansson
⚽A. Kouameassist: K. Filling
72'
🔁L. Bergquistout: O. Pukelis
80'
🔁Y. Geigerout: L. Jareteg
80'
🔁K. Fillingout: S. Gustafsson
80'
⚽S. Gustafssonassist: L. Camara
83'
85'
🔁P. Abrahamout: N. Besara
85'
🔁H. Skoglundout: S. Kebbeh

Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF

43%Possession57%
11Shots32
6On target12
1Corners7
1.91xG4.26

Goals against chances

AIK Stockholm3 from 1.91 xGmore than the chances were worth
Hammarby FF2 from 4.26 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AIK Stockholm 3-4-3
  • 15K. NordfeldtG
  • 19D. BesirovicD
  • 34W. OlofssonD
  • 3H. MatthysD
  • 7A. MujanicM
  • 46Y. GeigerM
  • 18A. AliM
  • 5L. BergquistM
  • 9L. CarlstrandF
  • 8J. HoveF
  • 29K. FillingF
Substitutes
  • 30K. JoelssonG
  • 49O. PukelisD
  • 47L. CamaraD
  • 28L. JaretegM
  • 44D. MalkiM
  • 48A. KouameM
  • 41M. ShillaM
  • 16S. GustafssonF
  • 43N. StaykovF
Coach: Jose Riveiro
Hammarby FF 4-3-3
  • 1W. HahnG
  • 2H. SkoglundD
  • 4V. ErikssonD
  • 3F. WintherD
  • 16N. PerssonD
  • 28F. AdjeiM
  • 8M. KarlssonM
  • 17A. BoudriM
  • 26M. MadjedF
  • 7P. AbrahamF
  • 9V. LindF
Substitutes
  • 27F. JakobssonG
  • 24W. ReneckeD
  • 6I. FofanaD
  • 31O. SteinkeD
  • 11O. JohanssonM
  • 20N. BesaraM
  • 5T. TekieM
  • 15O. Hagen
  • 30S. KebbehF
Coach: Kalle Karlsson

Form going into AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF

AIK Stockholm

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Djurgardens IF16 August 2026
  • W4-3away to Orgryte IS8 August 2026
  • L0-3Orgryte IS2 August 2026
  • D0-0away to BK Hacken27 July 2026
  • W2-0Gais18 July 2026

Hammarby FF

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Gais23 August 2026
  • W4-0away to Kalmar FF16 August 2026
  • L0-1Raków Częstochowa13 August 2026
  • W3-0BK Hacken9 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Raków Częstochowa6 August 2026

What these results say

  • Hammarby FF kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8AIK Stockholm2811894649-341
1Hammarby FF2818466023+3758

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF

  • 24 May 2026Hammarby FF 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 19 October 2025Hammarby FF 2–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 18 May 2025AIK Stockholm 0–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 29 September 2024AIK Stockholm 1–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 19 May 2024Hammarby FF 2–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF

AIK Stockholm

GoalsAssists

  • J. Hove113

Hammarby FF

GoalsAssists

  • P. Abraham174
  • V. Lind1013
  • M. Madjed82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AIK Stockholm beat Hammarby FF 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Hammarby FF at 41% and given a win for AIK Stockholm 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: F. Adjei 14' for Hammarby FF, L. Carlstrand 15' for AIK Stockholm, P. Abraham 45' for Hammarby FF, A. Kouame 72' for AIK Stockholm, S. Gustafsson 83' for AIK Stockholm. On expected goals it finished 1.91–4.26.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.