30 August 2026, 12:00 UTC

AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Strawberry Arena, Solna
Full time3 – 2

Final score: AIK Stockholm 3-2 Hammarby FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% AIK Stockholm, 27% draw, 41% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hammarby FF at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AIK Stockholm94%Draw6%Hammarby FF0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Wilmer Olofsson
11'
14'
⚽F. Adjei
⚽L. Carlstrandassist: K. Filling
15'
26'
⚽Paulos Abraham (pen)
28'
🔁A. Boudriout: T. Tekie
Abdihakin Ali
33'
🔁D. Besirovicout: L. Camara
41'
45'
⚽P. Abrahamassist: V. Lind
Yannick Geiger
48'
Ladji Camara
52'
🔁A. Mujanicout: A. Kouame
56'
59'
Victor Eriksson
65'
🔁V. Erikssonout: I. Fofana
65'
🔁F. Adjeiout: O. Johansson
⚽A. Kouameassist: K. Filling
72'
🔁L. Bergquistout: O. Pukelis
80'
🔁Y. Geigerout: L. Jareteg
80'
🔁K. Fillingout: S. Gustafsson
80'
⚽S. Gustafssonassist: L. Camara
83'
85'
🔁P. Abrahamout: N. Besara
85'
🔁H. Skoglundout: S. Kebbeh

Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF

43%Possession57%
11Shots32
6On target12
1Corners7
1.91xG4.26

Goals against chances

AIK Stockholm3 from 1.91 xGmore than the chances were worth
Hammarby FF2 from 4.26 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AIK Stockholm 3-4-3
  • 15K. NordfeldtG
  • 19D. BesirovicD
  • 34W. OlofssonD
  • 3H. MatthysD
  • 7A. MujanicM
  • 46Y. GeigerM
  • 18A. AliM
  • 5L. BergquistM
  • 9L. CarlstrandF
  • 8J. HoveF
  • 29K. FillingF
Substitutes
  • 30K. JoelssonG
  • 49O. PukelisD
  • 47L. CamaraD
  • 28L. JaretegM
  • 44D. MalkiM
  • 48A. KouameM
  • 41M. ShillaM
  • 16S. GustafssonF
  • 43N. StaykovF
Coach: Jose Riveiro
Hammarby FF 4-3-3
  • 1W. HahnG
  • 2H. SkoglundD
  • 4V. ErikssonD
  • 3F. WintherD
  • 16N. PerssonD
  • 28F. AdjeiM
  • 8M. KarlssonM
  • 17A. BoudriM
  • 26M. MadjedF
  • 7P. AbrahamF
  • 9V. LindF
Substitutes
  • 27F. JakobssonG
  • 24W. ReneckeD
  • 6I. FofanaD
  • 31O. SteinkeD
  • 11O. JohanssonM
  • 20N. BesaraM
  • 5T. TekieM
  • 15O. Hagen
  • 30S. KebbehF
Coach: Kalle Karlsson

Form going into AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF

AIK Stockholm

  • W3-1away to Djurgardens IF16 August 2026

Hammarby FF

  • W2-0Gais23 August 2026
  • W4-0away to Kalmar FF16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7AIK Stockholm219663032-233
3Hammarby FF2112454820+2840

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF

  • 30 August 2026AIK Stockholm 3–2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 24 May 2026Hammarby FF 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 19 October 2025Hammarby FF 2–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 18 May 2025AIK Stockholm 0–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 29 September 2024AIK Stockholm 1–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 19 May 2024Hammarby FF 2–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF

AIK Stockholm

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.

Hammarby FF

  • P. Abraham13 goals3 assists
  • V. Lind9 goals11 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.