Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Barcelona 5-2 Rayo Vallecano.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Barcelona, 23% draw, 20% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Barcelona at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Joan GarcíaG
- 23Jules KoundéD
- 5Pau CubarsíD
- 15Andreas ChristensenD
- 12Xavi EspartD
- 22Marc BernalM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalM
- 20Dani OlmoM
- 17Anthony GordonM
- 11RaphinhaF
- 16RodriM
- 7Fermín LópezM
- 2João CanceloD
- 14Karim AdeyemiF
- 29Hamza AbdelkarimF
- 13Wojciech SzczęsnyG
- 31Eder AllerG
- 3Alejandro BaldeD
- 24Eric GarcíaD
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 20Iván BalliuD
- 24Florian LejeuneD
- 6Pathé Ismaël CissD
- 33Jozhua VertrouwdD
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 36Gnangoro BouaréM
- 19Jorge de FrutosM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 18Álvaro GarcíaM
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 21Fran PérezF
- 11Randy NtekaM
- 9AlemãoF
- 30Adrián MolinaG
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 26Marco de las SiasD
- 2Andrei RațiuD
Form going into Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Athletic Club27 August 2026
- W5-0away to Elche23 August 2026
Rayo Vallecano
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Alaves20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sevilla15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 33 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
- 22 March 2026Barcelona 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 31 August 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–1 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 17 February 2025Barcelona 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 27 August 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Barcelona 3–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
GoalsAssists
- Raphinha153
- Lamine Yamal108
- Fermín75
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Barcelona beat Rayo Vallecano 5–2. The model had made a win for Barcelona its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Camello 12' for Rayo Vallecano, Raphinha 19' for Barcelona, Lamine Yamal 21' for Barcelona, F. Lejeune (own goal) 51' for Barcelona, S. Camello 59' for Rayo Vallecano, Raphinha 71' for Barcelona, Lamine Yamal 90' for Barcelona. On expected goals it finished 2.83–1.08.