30 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club La Liga prediction & result

Vigo
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Celta Vigo 0-2 Athletic Club.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Celta Vigo, 30% draw, 34% Athletic Club — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Celta Vigo at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celta Vigo0%Draw1%Athletic Club99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽A. Berenguerassist: I. Williams
22'
⚽R. Navarroassist: I. Ruiz de Galarreta
🔁J. Rodriguezout: J. Rueda
46'
🔁A. Fayeout: Y. Lago
46'
🔁I. Moribaout: M. Roman
46'
🔁H. Gonzalezout: I. Aspas
46'
48'
Yuri Berchiche
🔁W. Swedbergout: H. Alvarez
57'
61'
Robert Navarro
65'
🔁O. Sancetout: P. Canales
65'
🔁I. Ruiz de Galarretaout: M. Jauregizar
65'
🔁I. Williamsout: G. Guruzeta
71'
Beñat Gerenabarrena
74'
🔁R. Navarroout: N. Williams
86'
🔁J. Aresoout: J. Louis-Jean

Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club

54%Possession46%
8Shots17
2On target7
4Corners7
0.56xG2.64

Goals against chances

Celta Vigo0 from 0.56 xGless than the chances were worth
Athletic Club2 from 2.64 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celta Vigo 3-4-3
  • 13I. RaduG
  • 20J. RodriguezD
  • 2C. StarfeltD
  • 4A. FayeD
  • 15A. NunezM
  • 14A. FebasM
  • 6I. MoribaM
  • 5S. CarreiraM
  • 19W. SwedbergF
  • 16H. GonzalezF
  • 9F. JutglaF
Substitutes
  • 1A. BayindirG
  • 22J. GalanD
  • 17J. RuedaD
  • 29Y. LagoD
  • 27K. RibesD
  • 8M. RomanM
  • 28A. AntanonM
  • 30H. BurcioM
  • 39J. El AbdellaouiF
Coach: Claudio Giraldez
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
  • 1U. SimonG
  • 12J. AresoD
  • 4A. ParedesD
  • 14A. LaporteD
  • 17Y. BerchicheD
  • 16I. Ruiz de GalarretaM
  • 24B. GerenabarrenaM
  • 23R. NavarroM
  • 8O. SancetM
  • 7A. BerenguerM
  • 9I. WilliamsF
Substitutes
  • 13A. PadillaG
  • 5Y. AlvarezD
  • 31J. Louis-JeanD
  • 20A. RegoM
  • 19A. BoiroD
  • 15H. RinconD
  • 28P. CanalesM
  • 18M. JauregizarM
  • 25A. DjaloF
Coach: Edin Terzic

Form going into Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club

Celta Vigo

  • L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026

Athletic Club

  • L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
  • L1-3Sevilla22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Celta Vigo604236-34
9Athletic Club521276+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club

  • 30 August 2026Celta Vigo 0–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
  • 17 May 2026Athletic Club 1–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • 14 December 2025Celta Vigo 2–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
  • 19 January 2025Celta Vigo 1–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
  • 22 September 2024Athletic Club 3–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • 15 May 2024Celta Vigo 2–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.