Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 0-2 Athletic Club.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Celta Vigo, 30% draw, 34% Athletic Club — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Celta Vigo at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13I. RaduG
- 20J. RodriguezD
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 4A. FayeD
- 15A. NunezM
- 14A. FebasM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 5S. CarreiraM
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 16H. GonzalezF
- 9F. JutglaF
- 1A. BayindirG
- 22J. GalanD
- 17J. RuedaD
- 29Y. LagoD
- 27K. RibesD
- 8M. RomanM
- 28A. AntanonM
- 30H. BurcioM
- 39J. El AbdellaouiF
- 1U. SimonG
- 12J. AresoD
- 4A. ParedesD
- 14A. LaporteD
- 17Y. BerchicheD
- 16I. Ruiz de GalarretaM
- 24B. GerenabarrenaM
- 23R. NavarroM
- 8O. SancetM
- 7A. BerenguerM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 13A. PadillaG
- 5Y. AlvarezD
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 20A. RegoM
- 19A. BoiroD
- 15H. RinconD
- 28P. CanalesM
- 18M. JauregizarM
- 25A. DjaloF
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club
Celta Vigo
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
- D0-0away to Valencia22 August 2026
Athletic Club
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
- L1-3Sevilla22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club
- 17 May 2026Athletic Club 1–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 14 December 2025Celta Vigo 2–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 19 January 2025Celta Vigo 1–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 22 September 2024Athletic Club 3–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 15 May 2024Celta Vigo 2–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Athletic Club
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Athletic Club won 2–0 at Celta Vigo. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta Vigo at 36% and given a win for Athletic Club 34%. The goals: A. Berenguer 20' for Athletic Club, R. Navarro 22' for Athletic Club. On expected goals it finished 0.56–2.64.