31 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Osasuna vs Getafe La Liga prediction & result

Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
Full time1 0

Final score: Osasuna 1-0 Getafe.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Osasuna, 31% draw, 28% Getafe — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Osasuna at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Osasuna97%Draw3%Getafe0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

J. Herrando
17'
🔁J. Herrandoout: F. Boyomo
39'
45'
Djene
A. Budimir (pen)
45+2'
🔁R. Garciaout: J. Dubasin
46'
52'
E. Unal
58'
J. Mojica
60'
E. Unal
65'
O. Mangala
65'
🔁A. Garciaout: A. R. Alcantara
I. Munoz
67'
🔁A. Orozout: R. Garcia
71'
🔁I. Munozout: L. Torro
71'
76'
🔁Franchoout: N. Gudelj
🔁M. Gomezout: K. Barja
77'
R. Garcia
80'
86'
🔁M. Satrianoout: B. Mayoral
S. Herrera
90+3'
K. Barja
90+4'

Match stats — Osasuna vs Getafe

45%Possession55%
10Shots11
2On target1
1Corners3
1.7xG0.65

Goals against chances

Osasuna1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Getafe0 from 0.65 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Osasuna 4-2-3-1
  • 1Sergio HerreraG
  • 27Iñigo ArguibideD
  • 24Alejandro CatenaD
  • 5Jorge HerrandoD
  • 23Abel BretonesD
  • 7Jon MoncayolaM
  • 8Iker MuñozM
  • 14Rubén GarcíaM
  • 10Aimar OrozM
  • 16Moi GómezM
  • 17Ante BudimirF
Substitutes
  • 22Enzo BoyomoD
  • 21Jonathan DubasinF
  • 6Lucas TorróM
  • 9Raúl García de HaroF
  • 11Kike BarjaF
  • 13Aitor FernándezG
  • 29Asier OsambelaM
  • 48Rockson YeboahD
  • 15Diego RicoD
Coach: Miguel Ramis Luis
Getafe 4-4-2
  • 13David SoriaG
  • 17Kiko FemeníaD
  • 2DjenéD
  • 24Zaid RomeroD
  • 22Johan MojicaD
  • 21Andrés GarcíaM
  • 16Francho SerranoM
  • 23Orel MangalaM
  • 11Ramón TerratsM
  • 19Enes ÜnalF
  • 10Martín SatrianoF
Substitutes
  • 28Alberto RiscoM
  • 8Nemanja GudeljM
  • 9Borja MayoralF
  • 35Diego FerrerG
  • 1Jiří LetáčekG
  • 26Jean Ives ValouD
  • 3DavinchiD
  • 31Mohamed HamdouneD
  • 15Sebastián BoselliD
Coach: Jose Bordalas Jimenez

Form going into Osasuna vs Getafe

Osasuna

  • W2-1away to Celta Vigo27 August 2026

Getafe

  • W1-0Racing Santander23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Alaves15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Osasuna6213512-77
15Getafe512236-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Getafe

  • 31 August 2026Osasuna 1–0 GetafeLa Liga
  • 23 May 2026Getafe 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
  • 3 October 2025Osasuna 2–1 GetafeLa Liga
  • 16 March 2025Osasuna 1–2 GetafeLa Liga
  • 5 October 2024Getafe 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
  • 21 January 2024Osasuna 3–2 GetafeLa Liga

Leading scorers: Osasuna and Getafe

Osasuna

  • A. Budimir4 goals

Getafe

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.