30 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia La Liga prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Riazor
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Deportivo La Coruna 3-1 Valencia.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Deportivo La Coruna, 26% draw, 47% Valencia — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Valencia at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽C. Tarrega (OG)
13'
⚽P. Aubameyangassist: M. Soriano
17'
26'
⚽U. Sadiq
⚽M. Diakhaby (OG)
59'
60'
🔁J. Guerraout: A. Danjuma
60'
🔁R. Satoout: H. Duro
60'
🔁L. Riojaout: D. Otorbi
64'
Mouctar Diakhaby
🔁R. Rodriguezout: T. Gijselhart
64'
66'
🔁Pepeluout: A. Dieng
🔁M. Sorianoout: A. Altimira
73'
🔁Cruz Luismiout: Y. Hernandez
73'
82'
🔁A. Martinezout: D. Raba
🔁X. Navarroout: M. Loureiro
83'
🔁B. Nsongoout: J. Asp
83'
Adrià Altimira
90+3'
Adrià Altimira
90+3'
Adrià Altimira
90+3'

Match stats — Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia

45%Possession55%
11Shots12
4On target4
5Corners5
1.42xG1.33

Goals against chances

Deportivo La Coruna3 from 1.42 xGmore than the chances were worth
Valencia1 from 1.33 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo La Coruna 4-4-2
  • 13L. RomanG
  • 23X. NavarroD
  • 4L. NoubiD
  • 22B. EdeD
  • 12G. QuagliataD
  • 19Cruz LuismiM
  • 21M. SorianoM
  • 16L. AmatucciM
  • 14R. RodriguezM
  • 32B. NsongoF
  • 7P. AubameyangF
Substitutes
  • 1G. ParrenoG
  • 25A. FernandezG
  • 15M. LoureiroD
  • 2A. AltimiraD
  • 24AngelinoD
  • 3A. ComasD
  • 8D. VillaresM
  • 34T. GijselhartM
  • 18J. AspM
Coach: Antonio Hidalgo
Valencia 5-4-1
  • 1S. DimitrievskiG
  • 11L. RiojaD
  • 22A. MartinezD
  • 5C. TarregaD
  • 4M. DiakhabyD
  • 21J. VazquezD
  • 39R. SatoM
  • 23F. UgrinicM
  • 18PepeluM
  • 8J. GuerraM
  • 6U. SadiqF
Substitutes
  • 25K. van OevelenG
  • 20D. FoulquierD
  • 14J. GayaD
  • 29A. PanachD
  • 36I. CordobaD
  • 33A. MayolD
  • 15A. DiengM
  • 38J. DuraM
  • 7A. DanjumaF
Coach: Carlos Corberan

Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia

Deportivo La Coruna

  • D1-1away to Malaga24 August 2026

Valencia

  • L0-1Real Betis25 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Deportivo La Coruna623197+29
17Valencia6114210-84

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia

  • 30 August 2026Deportivo La Coruna 3–1 ValenciaLa Liga
  • 20 May 2018Valencia 2–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
  • 13 January 2018Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 ValenciaLa Liga
  • 2 April 2017Valencia 3–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
  • 31 October 2016Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
  • 24 January 2016Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga

Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Valencia

Deportivo La Coruna

  • P. Aubameyang5 goals2 assists

Valencia

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.