Real Madrid vs Malaga La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Madrid 4-0 Malaga.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Real Madrid, 28% draw, 20% Malaga — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Madrid at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Madrid vs Malaga
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 22A. RudigerD
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 17M. CucurellaD
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 21B. DiazM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 7Vinicius JuniorM
- 10K. MbappeF
- 13A. LuninG
- 31J. Navarro JimenezG
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 16I. KonateD
- 18A. CarrerasD
- 33M. RivasD
- 20B. SilvaM
- 15A. GulerM
- 29J. Cestero SanchoM
- 1A. HerreroG
- 3C. PugaD
- 15A. RecioD
- 4E. GalileaD
- 31RafitaD
- 10D. LarrubiaM
- 14R. RodriguezM
- 23I. MerinoM
- 11J. MunozM
- 9ChupeF
- 8C. DotorF
- 13C. LopezG
- 5A. PastorD
- 12J. SalinasD
- 18P. MartinezM
- 6R. EnriquezM
- 7H. AbaidaF
- 28J. OtunencheM
- 17E. JauregiF
- 24J. LobeteF
Form going into Real Madrid vs Malaga
Real Madrid
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Real Sociedad26 August 2026
- W2-1away to Espanyol22 August 2026
Malaga
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Malaga
- 15 April 2018Malaga 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 25 November 2017Real Madrid 3–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 21 May 2017Malaga 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 21 January 2017Real Madrid 2–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 21 February 2016Malaga 1–1 Real MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Malaga
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé132
- J. Bellingham43
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Madrid beat Malaga 4–0. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Bellingham 19' for Real Madrid, A. Herrero (own goal) 26' for Real Madrid, K. Mbappe 30' for Real Madrid, A. Guler 90' for Real Madrid. On expected goals it finished 2.34–0.72.