31 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result

Municipal de Barreiro, Vigo
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Celta de Vigo II 1-2 Castellón.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Celta de Vigo II, 29% draw, 31% Castellón — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celta de Vigo II at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celta de Vigo II0%Draw5%Castellón95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽F. Castillo
🔁A. Antanonout: H. Burcio
46'
🔁P. Meixusout: A. Kibet
46'
48'
⚽P. Santiagoassist: F. Castillo
54'
Ousmane Camara
59'
Francisco Castillo
64'
🔁I. Cordobaout: R. Sanchez
🔁A. Capdevilaout: H. F. Cuenca Martinez
65'
🔁A. Marinout: B. Somuah
65'
65'
🔁Juanjo Nietoout: L. Alcazar
65'
🔁F. Castilloout: A. Gala
Joel López Salguero
74'
⚽O. Marcosassist: H. F. Cuenca Martinez
79'
80'
🔁P. Santiagoout: R. Rego
🔁O. Marcosout: A. Davila
82'
90'
Álvaro Martín
90'
🔁Barriout: J. Vlak

Match stats — Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón

46%Possession54%
12Shots13
4On target5
3Corners3
0.92xG1.97

Goals against chances

Celta de Vigo II1 from 0.92 xGabout what the chances were worth
Castellón2 from 1.97 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celta de Vigo II 3-4-3
  • 1J. B. CarrilloG
  • 3K. RibesD
  • 6P. MeixusD
  • 20A. RodriguezD
  • 23G. MillaM
  • 16A. CapdevilaM
  • 8A. AntanonM
  • 18J. LopezM
  • 10O. MarcosF
  • 9A. MarinF
  • 11A. ArcosF
Substitutes
  • 13Caio BaroneG
  • 25M. GonzalezG
  • 14J. OliverasD
  • 21A. OlmedoD
  • 4S. M. NdiayeD
  • 2P. GavianD
  • 29M. SobralD
  • 17H. F. Cuenca MartinezM
  • 5H. BurcioM
Coach: Fredi Alvarez
Castellón 3-4-2-1
  • 13R. MatthysG
  • 22J. MellotD
  • 5A. JimenezD
  • 4A. SienraD
  • 2Juanjo NietoM
  • 21AlvaroM
  • 8BarriM
  • 14I. CordobaM
  • 18P. SantiagoF
  • 17F. CastilloF
  • 9O. CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 1A. SaipiG
  • 35S. Torner RosellG
  • 30M. WillmanD
  • 12L. AlcazarD
  • 10I. SueroM
  • 23A. GarciaF
  • 27A. GalaM
  • 25J. VlakM
  • 7R. SanchezF
Coach: Pablo Hernandez

Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón

Celta de Vigo II

All competitions we cover

  • W4-2FC Andorra24 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Cadiz15 August 2026

Castellón

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Real Sociedad II14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Celta de Vigo II133461925-613
2Castellón13931245+1930

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Castellón

Celta de Vigo II

GoalsAssists

  • A. Marin81

Castellón

GoalsAssists

  • Israel Suero62
  • A. Jakobsen41
  • Ousmane Camara41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Castellón won 2–1 at Celta de Vigo II. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta de Vigo II at 40% and given a win for Castellón 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: F. Castillo 9' for Castellón, P. Santiago 48' for Castellón, O. Marcos 79' for Celta de Vigo II. On expected goals it finished 0.92–1.97.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.