Benfica vs Estoril Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 2-1 Estoril.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Benfica, 21% draw, 18% Estoril — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 61% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benfica vs Estoril
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 6Alexander BahD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 2Clément LengletD
- 26Samuel DahlD
- 18Leandro BarreiroM
- 5Enzo BarrenecheaM
- 27Rafa SilvaM
- 10Georgiy SudakovM
- 25Gianluca PrestianniM
- 14Vangelis PavlidisF
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 21Andreas SchjelderupF
- 77Gonçalo MoreiraM
- 11Dodi LukebakioF
- 22Jhon DuránF
- 1Anatoliy TrubinG
- 62José NetoD
- 3Alessandro CircatiD
- 16Manu SilvaM
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 25Stelios AndreouD
- 4FerroD
- 15Ismael Sierra ArnalD
- 2Ricard SánchezM
- 8XekaM
- 5Antef TsounguiM
- 3Fernando MedranoM
- 7André LacximicantF
- 14Yanis BegraouiF
- 12João CarvalhoF
- 10Jordan HolsgroveM
- 17PeixinhoF
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 98Fabrício GarciaF
- 99Rafik GuitaneM
- 23Diogo DiasG
- 16Martin TurkG
- 42Jordan ArnolinD
- 19Tiago ParenteD
Form going into Benfica vs Estoril
Benfica
- W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026
Estoril
- L0-2Rio Ave22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Nacional16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 16 |
| 17 | Estoril | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs Estoril
- 31 August 2026Benfica 2–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 16 May 2026Estoril 1–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 3 January 2026Benfica 3–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 3 May 2025Estoril 1–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 23 December 2024Benfica 3–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 10 March 2024Benfica 3–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Benfica and Estoril
Benfica
- V. Pavlidis8 goals2 assists
- G. Prestianni5 goals2 assists
- L. Barreiro2 goals1 assists
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.