Benfica vs Estoril Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 2-1 Estoril.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Benfica, 21% draw, 18% Estoril — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Benfica at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benfica vs Estoril
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 6Alexander BahD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 2Clément LengletD
- 26Samuel DahlD
- 18Leandro BarreiroM
- 5Enzo BarrenecheaM
- 27Rafa SilvaM
- 10Georgiy SudakovM
- 25Gianluca PrestianniM
- 14Vangelis PavlidisF
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 21Andreas SchjelderupF
- 77Gonçalo MoreiraM
- 11Dodi LukebakioF
- 22Jhon DuránF
- 1Anatoliy TrubinG
- 62José NetoD
- 3Alessandro CircatiD
- 16Manu SilvaM
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 25Stelios AndreouD
- 4FerroD
- 15Ismael Sierra ArnalD
- 2Ricard SánchezM
- 8XekaM
- 5Antef TsounguiM
- 3Fernando MedranoM
- 7André LacximicantF
- 14Yanis BegraouiF
- 12João CarvalhoF
- 10Jordan HolsgroveM
- 17PeixinhoF
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 98Fabrício GarciaF
- 99Rafik GuitaneM
- 23Diogo DiasG
- 16Martin TurkG
- 42Jordan ArnolinD
- 19Tiago ParenteD
Form going into Benfica vs Estoril
Benfica
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Aarhus27 August 2026
- W3-1Aarhus20 August 2026
- W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026
- D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
- D2-2Academico Viseu9 August 2026
Estoril
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Rio Ave22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Nacional16 August 2026
- D1-1Famalicao7 August 2026
What these results say
- Benfica went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Benfica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 10 | +20 | 28 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs Estoril
- 16 May 2026Estoril 1–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 3 January 2026Benfica 3–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 3 May 2025Estoril 1–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 23 December 2024Benfica 3–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 10 March 2024Benfica 3–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Benfica and Estoril
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis113
- G. Prestianni74
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benfica beat Estoril 2–1. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: V. Pavlidis 40' for Benfica, C. Lenglet 51' for Benfica, Y. Begraoui 82' for Estoril. On expected goals it finished 2.03–0.36.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.