Stevenage
vs
Mansfield Town
League One postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 38% Stevenage, 30% draw, 32% Mansfield Town — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Stevenage 1.24, Mansfield Town 1.07.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More League One predictions
Model insights: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
Has the model earned this number?
Stevenage at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
Stevenage
League One
- D2-2away to Leicester31 October 2026
- L0-1Milton Keynes Dons24 October 2026
- W3-0Plymouth20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bradford17 October 2026
- W1-0Wigan10 October 2026
Mansfield Town
League One
- D0-0away to Wigan3 November 2026
- L0-2Notts County31 October 2026
- W4-1away to Blackpool24 October 2026
- W3-0away to AFC Wimbledon20 October 2026
- D1-1Oxford United15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
- 24 January 2026Stevenage 1–1 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 13 September 2025Mansfield Town 1–1 StevenageLeague One
- 8 March 2025Stevenage 1–1 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 30 November 2024Stevenage 0–1 Mansfield TownFA Cup
- 19 October 2024Mansfield Town 0–1 StevenageLeague One
- 22 April 2023Mansfield Town 1–0 StevenageLeague Two
Leading scorers: Stevenage and Mansfield Town
Stevenage
No player in League One's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Mansfield Town
GoalsAssists
- M. Smith62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mansfield Town (12th, with Stevenage 16th), while our numbers lean to Stevenage. Stevenage rate 0.49 in attack and 1.47 in defence, Mansfield Town 0.59 and 1.65 (lower is better in defence), so Stevenage have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stevenage a 0.5% chance of the title and Mansfield Town 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stevenage the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Stevenage against 1.07 for Mansfield Town. Stevenage's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.65 for Mansfield Town.
How the model reaches 38% for Stevenage to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stevenage to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Stevenage's ratings take away 1 point and Mansfield Town's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Stevenage's ratings39%−1
- Mansfield Town's ratings38%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.