Wigan
vs
Barnsley
League One prediction & result
Final score: Wigan 2-1 Barnsley.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Wigan, 29% draw, 30% Barnsley — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wigan 1.35, Barnsley 1.09.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League One predictions
Model insights: Wigan vs Barnsley
Has the model earned this number?
Wigan at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wigan vs Barnsley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41J. WhitworthG
- 5F. BurnsD
- 23J. CarragherD
- 3M. FoxD
- 2C. BarrettM
- 6J. WeirM
- 8M. PowerM
- 7F. MurrayM
- 27B. BurrowsM
- 22J. MellishM
- 38C. SaydeeF
- 4J. Chilokoa-MullenD
- 16Archie HarrisD
- 17A. HigginsF
- 25S. HoganF
- 14R. TrevittM
- 1J. WalshG
- 21K'Marni MillerD
- 1C. SlickerG
- 12J. OkedinaD
- 4S. GaleD
- 2A. KayD
- 3Z. LarkecheD
- 48L. ConnellM
- 14D. JohnsonM
- 45Vimal YoganathanM
- 8C. McGeehanM
- 19R. ClearyM
- 9M. KirkF
- 32Royce BrownlieF
- 11T. NoslinD
- 15Isaac SmithD
- 17Amani RichardsF
- 46O'Rian Andrew ReidM
- 25Rogan RavenhillG
- 36L. AlkerF
Form going into Wigan vs Barnsley
Wigan
League One
- D0-0Mansfield Town3 November 2026
- W3-2Bromley31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Leicester27 October 2026
- L1-2away to Huddersfield24 October 2026
Barnsley
League One
- D1-1Oxford United31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Reading24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Luton20 October 2026
- L1-2Cambridge United17 October 2026
What these results say
- Wigan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wigan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Wigan had three goals or more.
- Barnsley did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Barnsley scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Barnsley conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wigan | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wigan vs Barnsley
- 8 August 2026Barnsley 1–1 WiganLeague Cup
- 17 March 2026Barnsley 1–1 WiganLeague One
- 1 January 2026Wigan 1–1 BarnsleyLeague One
- 29 March 2025Wigan 1–1 BarnsleyLeague One
- 23 November 2024Barnsley 0–1 WiganLeague One
- 13 August 2024Wigan 1–1 BarnsleyLeague Cup
The result against the call
Wigan beat Barnsley 2–1. The goals: Fraser Murray 36' for Wigan, Cameron McGeehan 57' for Barnsley, Jensen Weir 75' for Wigan. On expected goals it finished 0.97–1.97.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wigan a 52.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 46.1% after a win, 53.2% after a draw, 59.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.1%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.
For Barnsley the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 45.0% going in: 38.0% after a win, 44.3% after a draw, 50.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.5%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wigan the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Wigan against 1.09 for Barnsley. Wigan's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.15 for Barnsley.
How the model reaches 41% for Wigan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wigan to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Wigan's ratings take away 2 points and Barnsley's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Wigan's ratings39%−2
- Barnsley's ratings41%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.