Stockport County
vs
Reading
League One prediction & result
Final score: Stockport County 3-1 Reading.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Stockport County, 27% draw, 28% Reading — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stockport County 1.68, Reading 1.19.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League One predictions
Model insights: Stockport County vs Reading
Has the model earned this number?
Stockport County at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stockport County vs Reading
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Oliver WhatmuffG
- 24Kyron Silveria GordonD
- 6E. O'ConnellD
- 5E. PyeD
- 30Ethan EnnisM
- 4L. BateM
- 10O. NorwoodM
- 23B. OsbornM
- 7J. DiamondF
- 19K. WoottonF
- 16H. WoodF
- 20J. AdigunM
- 2J. Dacres-CogleyD
- 18L. FioriniM
- 15R. GloverM
- 25M. JobeD
- 22M. MandronF
- 14T. EdunD
- 1Joel PereiraG
- 2U. Godwin-MalifeD
- 20J. KnightD
- 23C. MastersonD
- 5H. RobertsD
- 10L. WingM
- 6L. FraserM
- 19Kyreece LisbieM
- 8C. SavageM
- 11D. KyerewaaM
- 7J. MarriottF
- 14R. WilliamsM
- 28J. StokesM
- 25J. StevensG
- 9J. ReidF
- 22S. PattonF
- 50J. JonesF
- 39A. AhmedD
Form going into Stockport County vs Reading
Stockport County
League One
- W2-1AFC Wimbledon31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Oxford United27 October 2026
- D1-1away to Notts County24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Doncaster20 October 2026
Reading
League One
- L0-2away to Oxford United4 November 2026
- D0-0away to Plymouth31 October 2026
- W2-1Barnsley24 October 2026
- W1-0Leyton Orient21 October 2026
What these results say
- Stockport County scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Stockport County conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Stockport County had two goals or fewer.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Reading had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stockport County | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 7 | Reading | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stockport County vs Reading
- 4 January 2026Reading 1–0 Stockport CountyLeague One
- 27 September 2025Stockport County 1–1 ReadingLeague One
- 18 January 2025Reading 1–3 Stockport CountyLeague One
- 29 October 2024Stockport County 4–1 ReadingLeague One
Leading scorers: Stockport County and Reading
Stockport County
GoalsAssists
- K. Wootton102
- J. Diamond63
Reading
GoalsAssists
- J. Marriott90
- Kyreece Lisbie55
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stockport County a 14.3% chance of the title and Reading 2.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stockport County a 22.4% chance to finish in the top two: 25.8% after a win, 20.1% after a draw, 18.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.8%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.
For Reading the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 12.8% going in: 15.3% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.6%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stockport County the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Stockport County against 1.19 for Reading. Stockport County's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.63 for Reading.
How the model reaches 45% for Stockport County to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stockport County to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Stockport County's ratings add 2 points and Reading's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Stockport County's ratings44%+2
- Reading's ratings45%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.