Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun Super League prediction & result
Final score: Beijing Guoan 3-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Beijing Guoan, 21% draw, 18% Yunnan Yukun — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beijing Guoan at 61% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun
Beijing Guoan
- W3-0away to Shanghai Shenhua18 August 2026
- W4-2away to Tianjin Teda15 August 2026
Yunnan Yukun
- W3-1Dalian Zhixing15 August 2026
- W1-0Chengdu Better City8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 49 | 33 | +16 | 38 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 51 | +3 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun
- 2 May 2026Yunnan Yukun 3–3 Beijing GuoanSuper League
- 20 August 2025Beijing Guoan 7–0 Yunnan YukunFA Cup
- 30 June 2025Beijing Guoan 2–1 Yunnan YukunSuper League
- 22 February 2025Yunnan Yukun 0–2 Beijing GuoanSuper League
Leading scorers: Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Yuning12 goals6 assists
- Fábio Abreu9 goals6 assists
Yunnan Yukun
- O. Maritu20 goals8 assists
- Cléber12 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.