22 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 NK Varazdin.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Dinamo Zagreb, 26% draw, 33% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Zagreb96%Draw4%NK Varazdin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽M. Mladenovskiassist: I. Canjuga
Miha Zajc
45'
45+1'
Novak Tepšić
🔁P. Tabinasout: M. Valincic
56'
🔁B. Godaout: M. Perez Vinlof
56'
⚽D. Beljo
57'
60'
🔁M. Marinaout: T. Duvnjak
60'
🔁I. Mamutout: M. Vuk
⚽N. Galesicassist: D. Beljo
68'
72'
Frane Maglica
72'
🔁L. Mamicout: D. Puclin
72'
🔁I. Tavaresout: E. Uchegbu
🔁M. Zajcout: R. Mudrazija
73'
🔁A. Hoxhaout: M. Orsic
73'
80'
🔁A. Latkovicout: S. Juric
🔁M. Lisicaout: F. Topic
81'
Josip Mišić
82'
⚽R. Mudrazijaassist: D. Beljo
90'

Match stats — Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

59%Possession41%
21Shots6
11On target1
5Corners2
2.1xG0.42

Goals against chances

Dinamo Zagreb3 from 2.10 xGmore than the chances were worth
NK Varazdin1 from 0.42 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
  • 33I. NevisticG
  • 13P. TabinasD
  • 15N. GalesicD
  • 6S. RadeljicD
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 80L. KacavendaM
  • 27J. MisicM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 9D. BeljoF
  • 11A. HoxhaF
Substitutes
  • 44I. FilipovicG
  • 25M. ValincicD
  • 36S. DominguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22M. Perez VinlofD
  • 20R. MudrazijaM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 77N. NsokiM
  • 41S. SuntaM
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
  • 33J. SilicG
  • 23F. MaglicaD
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 16N. TepsicD
  • 20G. SikosekD
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 24M. MarinaM
  • 10A. LatkovicM
  • 22L. MamicM
  • 38I. TavaresM
  • 17I. MamutF
Substitutes
  • 1O. ZelenikaG
  • 12P. BockajD
  • 4L. SkaricicD
  • 5S. LesjakD
  • 3E. DurakovicD
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
  • 6D. PuclinM
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
Coach: Nikola Safaric

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

Dinamo Zagreb

  • W4-0Rudes14 August 2026

NK Varazdin

  • W2-0HNK Rijeka16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Dinamo Zagreb6411147+713
3NK Varazdin7421137+614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

  • 22 August 2026Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 26 April 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 22 February 2026NK Varazdin 0–4 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 22 November 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 30 August 2025NK Varazdin 2–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 25 May 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL

Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and NK Varazdin

Dinamo Zagreb

  • D. Beljo7 goals3 assists

NK Varazdin

  • I. Canjuga3 goals2 assists
  • L. Mamić3 goals
  • A. Latković2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.