22 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas, Koprivnica
Full time2 – 0

Final score: NK Slaven Belupo 2-0 HNK Gorica.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% NK Slaven Belupo, 26% draw, 31% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NK Slaven Belupo at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Slaven Belupo99%Draw1%HNK Gorica0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ilija Nestorovski
4'
⚽J. Mitrovicassist: K. Isasegi
18'
⚽I. Nestorovskiassist: D. Bosak
21'
Ljuban Crepulja
27'
36'
Ante Kavelj
46'
🔁F. Brautout: K. Custovic
🔁L. Bosnjakout: A. Adeshina
60'
60'
🔁J. Filipovicout: D. Stevanovic
60'
🔁J. Friganout: S. Kucis
60'
🔁P. Mijicout: M. Gashi
🔁L. Banovecout: A. Grgic
61'
🔁I. Nestorovskiout: M. Dabro
67'
84'
🔁J. Pranjicout: L. Vrzic
🔁D. Kovacicout: T. Bozic
90+1'
🔁D. Bosakout: A. Jonsson
90+1'

Match stats — NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica

43%Possession57%
16Shots13
6On target3
5Corners4
1.07xG0.93

Goals against chances

NK Slaven Belupo2 from 1.07 xGmore than the chances were worth
HNK Gorica0 from 0.93 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Slaven Belupo 4-2-3-1
  • 30K. SenticG
  • 18F. KruseljD
  • 4D. KovacicD
  • 5I. Cvetko
  • 33K. IsasegiD
  • 88D. BosakM
  • 21L. CrepuljaM
  • 11J. MitrovicM
  • 24L. BosnjakM
  • 8L. BanovecM
  • 90I. NestorovskiF
Substitutes
  • 32I. CovicG
  • 12M. PavliG
  • 6T. BozicD
  • 13A. BilobrkD
  • 23A. JonssonM
  • 22A. Adeshina
  • 16L. GeciM
  • 27A. GrgicF
  • 7M. DabroF
Coach: Mario Gregurina
HNK Gorica 3-4-2-1
  • 71D. MatijasG
  • 45S. PericD
  • 32J. FilipovicD
  • 34I. CvijanovicD
  • 2F. BrautM
  • 66J. FriganM
  • 36A. KaveljM
  • 25B. BogojevicM
  • 8J. PranjicF
  • 24D. PavicicF
  • 9P. MijicF
Substitutes
  • 30D. ZarkovG
  • 1R. JosipovicG
  • 15D. StevanovicD
  • 4K. CustovicM
  • 7O. BakicM
  • 14S. KucisM
  • 67T. PrgometM
  • 99M. GashiF
  • 18B. KardumF
Coach: Mario Carevic

Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica

NK Slaven Belupo

  • L0-3away to Istra 196115 August 2026

HNK Gorica

  • L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8NK Slaven Belupo7205514-96
10HNK Gorica7025412-82

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica

  • 22 August 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 10 May 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 7 March 2026HNK Gorica 2–2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 5 December 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 21 September 2025HNK Gorica 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 18 May 2025NK Slaven Belupo 4–0 HNK GoricaHNL

Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Gorica

NK Slaven Belupo

  • I. Nestorovski3 goals

HNK Gorica

  • B. Bogojević3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.