Belarus
vs
Albania
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Belarus 0–1 Albania
The model makes it 31% Belarus, 32% draw, 37% Albania — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Belarus 0.98, Albania 1.12.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Belarus's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Albania's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Belarus are 2nd on 10 points from 5 games; Albania are top on 12 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Belarus are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to San Marino.
- Albania have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Finland.
- Last 3 meetings: Albania 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended Albania 2–0 Belarus.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Belarus vs Albania
Has the model earned this number?
Albania at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Belarus vs Albania
Belarus
UEFA Nations League
- W2-0away to San Marino12 November 2026
- W1-0Finland6 October 2026
- W4-0San Marino3 October 2026
- D0-0away to Finland29 September 2026
- L0-2away to Albania26 September 2026
Albania
UEFA Nations League
- W2-0Finland12 November 2026
- W2-1San Marino6 October 2026
- L1-2away to Finland3 October 2026
- W3-0away to San Marino29 September 2026
- W2-0Belarus26 September 2026
What these results say
- Belarus kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Belarus had two goals or fewer.
- Albania scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Albania won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Belarus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 1 | Albania | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Belarus vs Albania
- 26 September 2026Albania 2–0 BelarusUEFA Nations League
- 18 November 2020Albania 3–2 BelarusUEFA Nations League
- 4 September 2020Belarus 0–2 AlbaniaUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Belarus and Albania
Belarus
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Albania
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Belarus v Albania has moved
First published on 1 Nov at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 31% / 32% / 37%: the biggest move is Belarus's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Belarus win31%▼ −6
- Draw32%▲ +2
- Albania win37%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Albania the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Belarus against 1.12 for Albania. Belarus's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.86 for Albania.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 37% for Albania to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Albania to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Belarus's ratings add 3 points and Albania's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level32%−2
- Belarus's ratings35%+3
- Albania's ratings37%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.