France
vs
Türkiye
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: France 2–1 Türkiye
The model makes it 61% France, 21% draw, 18% Türkiye — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: France 2.42, Türkiye 1.11.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: France are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. France's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Türkiye's from its last 3 matches.
Key facts
- France are 2nd on 10 points from 5 games; Türkiye are bottom on 0 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- France have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Italy.
- Türkiye have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Belgium.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 September 2026, ended Türkiye 0–1 France.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: France vs Türkiye
Has the model earned this number?
France at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into France vs Türkiye
France
UEFA Nations League
- L1-3away to Italy12 November 2026
- W4-1Belgium5 October 2026
- D1-1Italy2 October 2026
- W1-0away to Belgium28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Türkiye25 September 2026
Türkiye
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2Belgium12 November 2026
- L1-3away to Italy5 October 2026
- L0-3away to Belgium2 October 2026
- L1-4Italy28 September 2026
- L0-1France25 September 2026
What these results say
- France scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Türkiye did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Türkiye conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Türkiye had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | France | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: France vs Türkiye
- 25 September 2026Türkiye 0–1 FranceUEFA Nations League
- 14 October 2019France 1–1 TürkiyeEuro Championship
- 8 June 2019Türkiye 2–0 FranceEuro Championship
Leading scorers: France and Türkiye
France
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise52
Türkiye
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives France the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for France against 1.11 for Türkiye. France's attack/defence rating is 1.74/0.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.51/1.03 for Türkiye.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 61% for France to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for France to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, France's ratings add 10 points and Türkiye's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level39%+1
- France's ratings49%+10
- Türkiye's ratings61%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.