Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Blackpool vs Wigan League One prediction

Bloomfield Road, Blackpool

Our model says: Blackpool 1–0 Wigan

The model makes it 42% Blackpool, 30% draw, 28% Wigan — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Blackpool 1.33, Wigan 0.97.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Blackpool's rating is built from 59 League One matches and Wigan's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Blackpool are 20th on 12 points from 13 games; Wigan are 19th on 14 points from 15 games — League One.
  • Blackpool are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to AFC Wimbledon.
  • Wigan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Barnsley.
  • Last 6 meetings: Wigan 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 September 2026, ended Wigan 3–2 Blackpool.

More League One predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Blackpool vs Wigan

46%
Both teams to score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Blackpool win Draw Wigan win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–19%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Blackpool first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Blackpool at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Blackpool vs Wigan

Blackpool

League One

  • L0-1away to AFC Wimbledon14 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Sheffield Wednesday1 November 2026
  • L1-4Mansfield Town24 October 2026
  • W2-0Milton Keynes Dons20 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Leyton Orient17 October 2026

Wigan

League One

  • W2-1Barnsley14 November 2026
  • D0-0Mansfield Town3 November 2026
  • W3-2Bromley31 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Leicester27 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Huddersfield24 October 2026

What these results say

  • Blackpool failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Blackpool conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Blackpool had two goals or fewer.
  • Wigan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Wigan had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Blackpool133371722-512
19Wigan154291323-1014

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Blackpool

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 32% today

Win 27%
Draw 33%
Defeat 38%

Wigan

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 37% today

Win 28%
Draw 37%
Defeat 42%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Blackpool vs Wigan

  • 22 September 2026Wigan 3–2 BlackpoolEFL Trophy
  • 7 March 2026Blackpool 1–1 WiganLeague One
  • 20 December 2025Wigan 0–2 BlackpoolLeague One
  • 26 April 2025Wigan 1–1 BlackpoolLeague One
  • 28 October 2024Blackpool 2–2 WiganLeague One
  • 16 March 2024Wigan 1–0 BlackpoolLeague One

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wigan (19th, with Blackpool 20th), while our numbers lean to Blackpool. Blackpool rate 0.49 in attack and 1.91 in defence, Wigan 0.41 and 1.77 (lower is better in defence), so Blackpool have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

How the call on Blackpool v Wigan has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is Blackpool's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Blackpool win42%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Wigan win28%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Blackpool Wigan
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.41
1.91 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.77
1.33 Model expected goals (this match) 0.97

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Blackpool the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Blackpool against 0.97 for Wigan. Blackpool's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.77 for Wigan.

Blackpool carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.13 for Wigan. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for Blackpool to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Blackpool to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Blackpool's ratings add 2 points and Wigan's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level40%−2
  4. Blackpool's ratings42%+2
  5. Wigan's ratings42%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

BlackpoolWigan
13Matches15
3W 3D 7LRecord4W 2D 9L
17 1.3 per gameGoals scored13 0.9 per game
22 1.7 per gameGoals conceded23 1.5 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets3 of 15
3 of 13Failed to score8 of 15
–Penalties scored–
27 2.1 per gameYellow cards40 2.7 per game
1Red cards1
4-1-3-2 9×Usual shape3-4-2-1 6×

Blackpool at home · Wigan away

6Played7
2W 2D 2LRecord0W 1D 6L
12–11Goals for – against4–12
2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Blackpool 13, Wigan 15.

Blackpool scored 143154
Wigan conceded 433525

Blackpool score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Wigan have let in 2 there.

Wigan scored 022260
Blackpool conceded 332517

Wigan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Blackpool have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Blackpool

Wigan

  • vs Plymouth28 Nov · League Onewin 31%
  • at Burton Albion1 Dec · League Onewin 28%
  • at Luton12 Dec · League Onewin 18%
  • vs Peterborough19 Dec · League Onewin 40%
  • at Doncaster26 Dec · League Onewin 30%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.