Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Tranmere vs Colchester League Two prediction

Prenton Park, Birkenhead

Our model says: Tranmere 1–0 Colchester

The model makes it 36% Tranmere, 30% draw, 34% Colchester — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Tranmere 1.23, Colchester 1.16.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

A tight game: Tranmere and Colchester are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Tranmere's rating is built from 61 League Two matches and Colchester's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Tranmere are 15th on 19 points from 15 games; Colchester are 21st on 15 points from 14 games — League Two.
  • Tranmere have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Fleetwood Town.
  • Colchester have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Gillingham.
  • Last 6 meetings: Colchester 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Tranmere 0–1 Colchester.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Tranmere vs Colchester

49%
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Tranmere win Draw Colchester win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–110%
  4. 0–010%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 1–28%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Tranmere first; the other scorelines share the remaining 33%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Tranmere at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Tranmere vs Colchester

Tranmere

League Two

  • L0-1away to Fleetwood Town14 November 2026
  • W3-1Cheltenham31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Crawley Town24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Northampton20 October 2026
  • L1-2Barnet17 October 2026

Colchester

League Two

  • W2-0Gillingham14 November 2026
  • L1-3Walsall31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Northampton24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Chesterfield20 October 2026
  • D0-0Exeter City17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Tranmere scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Tranmere conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Colchester failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Colchester had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Tranmere154741918+119
21Colchester143651419-515

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Tranmere

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 10% today

Win 7%
Draw 10%
Defeat 12%

Colchester

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 8% today

Win 5%
Draw 9%
Defeat 10%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Tranmere vs Colchester

  • 6 April 2026Tranmere 0–1 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 2 August 2025Colchester 1–1 TranmereLeague Two
  • 1 February 2025Tranmere 1–3 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 21 September 2024Colchester 3–0 TranmereLeague Two
  • 1 April 2024Tranmere 1–1 ColchesterLeague Two
  • 9 September 2023Colchester 2–0 TranmereLeague Two

Leading scorers: Tranmere and Colchester

Tranmere

GoalsAssists

  • D. Jones50

Colchester

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tranmere a 0.1% chance of the title and Colchester 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Tranmere v Colchester has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 36% / 30% / 34%: the biggest move is Tranmere's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Tranmere win36%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Colchester win34%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Tranmere Colchester
0.43 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.43
2.22 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.95
1.23 Model expected goals (this match) 1.16

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Tranmere the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Tranmere against 1.16 for Colchester. Tranmere's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.95 for Colchester.

Tranmere carry a model rating of 6.03 against 6.1 for Colchester. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 36% for Tranmere to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tranmere to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Tranmere's ratings take away 1 point and Colchester's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level40%−1
  4. Tranmere's ratings39%−1
  5. Colchester's ratings36%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

TranmereColchester
15Matches14
4W 7D 4LRecord3W 6D 5L
19 1.3 per gameGoals scored14 1.0 per game
18 1.2 per gameGoals conceded19 1.4 per game
4 of 15Clean sheets3 of 14
3 of 15Failed to score4 of 14
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 3
32 2.1 per gameYellow cards17 1.2 per game
2Red cards1
4-2-3-1 12×Usual shape4-2-3-1 13×

Tranmere at home · Colchester away

7Played7
3W 3D 1LRecord0W 3D 4L
12–7Goals for – against6–13
2 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Tranmere 15, Colchester 14.

Tranmere scored 143352
Colchester conceded 250307

Tranmere score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Colchester have let in 0 there.

Colchester scored 131143
Tranmere conceded 310317

Colchester score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Tranmere have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Tranmere

Colchester

  • vs York28 Nov · League Twowin 36%
  • at Grimsby1 Dec · League Twowin 22%
  • at Salford City12 Dec · League Twowin 23%
  • vs Port Vale15 Dec · League Twowin 38%
  • vs Fleetwood Town19 Dec · League Twowin 38%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.