Stevenage
vs
Blackpool
League One prediction
Our model says: Stevenage 1–0 Blackpool
The model makes it 47% Stevenage, 29% draw, 24% Blackpool — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Stevenage 1.44, Blackpool 0.89.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Stevenage: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Stevenage's rating is built from 60 League One matches and Blackpool's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.
Key facts
- Stevenage are 16th on 16 points from 12 games; Blackpool are 20th on 12 points from 13 games — League One.
- Stevenage have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Leicester.
- Blackpool are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to AFC Wimbledon.
- Last 6 meetings: Stevenage 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Stevenage 1–0 Blackpool.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stevenage vs Blackpool
Has the model earned this number?
Stevenage at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stevenage vs Blackpool
Stevenage
League One
- D2-2away to Leicester31 October 2026
- L0-1Milton Keynes Dons24 October 2026
- W3-0Plymouth20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bradford17 October 2026
- W1-0Wigan10 October 2026
Blackpool
League One
- L0-1away to AFC Wimbledon14 November 2026
- D1-1away to Sheffield Wednesday1 November 2026
- L1-4Mansfield Town24 October 2026
- W2-0Milton Keynes Dons20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Leyton Orient17 October 2026
What these results say
- Blackpool failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackpool conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Blackpool had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 16 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Blackpool
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 32% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Stevenage vs Blackpool
- 6 April 2026Stevenage 1–0 BlackpoolLeague One
- 2 August 2025Blackpool 2–3 StevenageLeague One
- 18 April 2025Stevenage 1–3 BlackpoolLeague One
- 21 December 2024Blackpool 0–0 StevenageLeague One
- 3 February 2024Stevenage 1–0 BlackpoolLeague One
- 14 October 2023Blackpool 3–0 StevenageLeague One
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stevenage a 0.5% chance of the title and Blackpool 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stevenage the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Stevenage against 0.89 for Blackpool. Stevenage's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.91 for Blackpool.
How the model reaches 47% for Stevenage to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stevenage to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Stevenage's ratings add 2 points and Blackpool's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Stevenage's ratings42%+2
- Blackpool's ratings47%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Stevenage at home · Blackpool away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Stevenage 12, Blackpool 13.
Stevenage score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Blackpool have let in 7 there.
Blackpool score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Stevenage have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Stevenage
- at Huddersfield1 Dec · League Onewin 23%
Blackpool
- vs Luton1 Dec · League Onewin 30%
- at Oxford United12 Dec · League Onewin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.