14 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav Czech Liga prediction & result

Dolicek, Prague
Referee: Michal Pansky
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Bohemians 1905 1-0 Mlada Boleslav.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Bohemians 1905, 29% draw, 36% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mlada Boleslav at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bohemians 190596%Draw4%Mlada Boleslav0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Jan Zíka
⚽Aleš Čermák
13'
27'
Aleš Majer
Vojtech Smrz
38'
45'
🔁Solomon Johnout: Josef Kolarik
Ladislav Krobot
47'
🔁Ladislav Krobotout: Václav Pilař
56'
🔁Roman Kvetout: Šimon Černý
56'
56'
🔁Filip Spatenkaout: David Kozel
Tomas Fruhwald
60'
60'
Jiří Klíma
71'
Martin Šubert
73'
🔁Daniel Langhamerout: Marek Havran
🔁Ladislav Almásiout: Denis Vala
82'
🔁Vojtech Smrzout: Samuel Obinaya
82'
82'
🔁Ondrej Karafiatout: Jan Buryan
Samuel Obinaya
86'
Aleš Čermák
90+1'
🔁Aleš Čermákout: David Heidenreich
90+2'
David Lischka
90+4'

Match stats — Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav

37%Possession63%
9Shots12
2On target5
1Corners3
0.71xG0.92

Goals against chances

Bohemians 19051 from 0.71 xGabout what the chances were worth
Mlada Boleslav0 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bohemians 1905 5-3-2
  • 23T. FrühwaldG
  • 32P. MirvaldD
  • 24M. HavelD
  • 27D. LischkaD
  • 3Matej KadlecD
  • 37D. JavorčekD
  • 47A. ČermákM
  • 42V. SmržM
  • 16R. KvětM
  • 9L. KrobotF
  • 99L. AlmásiF
Substitutes
  • 15M. BandaD
  • 70Simon CernyM
  • 8D. HeidenreichD
  • 25P. KareemD
  • 19J. KovaříkM
  • 62Samuel ObinayaM
  • 11V. PilařM
  • 12M. ReichlG
  • 18D. ValaD
Coach: J. Veselý
Mlada Boleslav 4-2-3-1
  • 59J. FloderG
  • 13D. DonátD
  • 44O. KarafiátD
  • 3M. KrálikD
  • 11M. HybšD
  • 17F. ŠpatenkaM
  • 76Jan ZikaM
  • 20S. JohnM
  • 28D. LanghamerM
  • 21M. ŠubertM
  • 23J. KlímaF
Substitutes
  • 14S. GrygarM
  • 5J. HarušťákD
  • 18M. HavranM
  • 49J. KoláříkM
  • 19D. KozelM
  • 9L. LetenayF
  • 32F. MatoušekD
  • 77D. PechM
  • 42V. VorelG
Coach: A. Majer

Form going into Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav

Bohemians 1905

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Baník Ostrava10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Pardubice19 September 2026
  • W2-0Slovácko12 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc5 September 2026
  • D1-1FK Jablonec2 September 2026

Mlada Boleslav

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Plzen10 October 2026
  • W2-0Zbrojovka Brno19 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
  • W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
  • W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Bohemians 1905 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Mlada Boleslav had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Bohemians 1905145541515020
3Mlada Boleslav147432215+725

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav

  • 31 January 2026Mlada Boleslav 2–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
  • 5 November 2025Bohemians 1905 0–0 Mlada BoleslavCup
  • 22 October 2025Bohemians 1905 1–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 15 March 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
  • 26 February 2025Mlada Boleslav 0–2 Bohemians 1905Cup

Leading scorers: Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav

Bohemians 1905

GoalsAssists

  • A. Čermák52

Mlada Boleslav

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šubert71
  • J. Klíma41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bohemians 1905 beat Mlada Boleslav 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Mlada Boleslav at 36% and given a win for Bohemians 1905 35%. The goal: Aleš Čermák 13' for Bohemians 1905. On expected goals it finished 0.71–0.92.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bohemians 1905 a 7.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.4% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.4%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.

For Mlada Boleslav the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 37.4% going in: 44.6% after a win, 35.1% after a draw, 31.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.3%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bohemians 1905 v Mlada Boleslav has moved

First published on 30 Sep at 33% / 30% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Bohemians 1905's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Bohemians 1905 win35%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Mlada Boleslav win36%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.