17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Pardubice vs Zlin Czech Liga prediction & result

Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice
Referee: Lukas Nehasil
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Pardubice 3-0 Zlin.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Pardubice, 27% draw, 26% Zlin — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pardubice at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pardubice99%Draw1%Zlin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Marek Ichaassist: Ryan Mahuta
15'
⚽Victor Samuelassist: Ioannis Foivos Botos
33'
45'
🔁Daniel Smigaout: Tomáš Poznar
45'
🔁Cletus Nombilout: Frank Appiah
55'
Michal Fukala
59'
🔁Michal Fukalaout: Stanley Guzorochi Kanu
🔁Ioannis Foivos Botosout: Tomas Jelinek
60'
⚽Tomas Jelinekassist: Václav Drchal
64'
69'
🔁Ondřej Kukučkaout: David Grygera
🔁Victor Samuelout: Kahuan Vinicius
71'
🔁Václav Drchalout: Martin Reil
72'
76'
🔁David Machalíkout: Michal Cupák
🔁Ryan Mahutaout: Mouhamed Tidjane Traore
85'
🔁Marek Ichaout: Jiri Zima
85'

Match stats — Pardubice vs Zlin

52%Possession48%
15Shots10
7On target3
3Corners2
2.21xG0.29

Goals against chances

Pardubice3 from 2.21 xGmore than the chances were worth
Zlin0 from 0.29 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pardubice 4-3-3
  • 46V. NeumanG
  • 15E. GodwinD
  • 33D. HalinskýD
  • 37D. KrčíkD
  • 25R. MahutaD
  • 90G. BotosM
  • 6M. IchaM
  • 19M. HlavatýM
  • 20A. TankoF
  • 17V. DrchalF
  • 35S. ĎatkoF
Substitutes
  • 11J. ZimaM
  • 16T. JelínekM
  • 43J. NoslinD
  • 27M. ReilD
  • 77R. SaarmaM
  • 1J. ŠerákG
  • 9D. SmékalF
  • 21M. TraoreD
  • 12J. TrédlD
Coach: J. Trousil
Zlin 4-5-1
  • 17S. DostálG
  • 35O. KukučkaD
  • 45Prince Mbatshi MukubaD
  • 39A. KřapkaD
  • 22M. FukalaD
  • 23M. KopečnýM
  • 27M. KratochvílM
  • 8D. MachalíkM
  • 19C. NombilM
  • 82M. PišojaM
  • 9D. ŠmigaF
Substitutes
  • 4T. UlbrichM
  • 88T. PoznarF
  • 34M. KnoblochG
  • 14S. KanuF
  • 21D. GrygeraD
  • 6J. DidibaM
  • 26M. CupákM
  • 31L. BartošákD
  • 20F. AppiahM
Coach: P. Hoftych

Form going into Pardubice vs Zlin

Pardubice

Czech Liga

  • L0-2away to Sparta Praha11 October 2026

Zlin

Czech Liga

  • L0-1Slavia Praha9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Pardubice145271920-117
16Zlin1403111127-163

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pardubice vs Zlin

  • 25 April 2026Pardubice 3–1 ZlinCzech Liga
  • 25 October 2025Zlin 2–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 4 May 2024Pardubice 2–0 ZlinCzech Liga
  • 14 April 2024Zlin 1–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 4 November 2023Pardubice 0–1 ZlinCzech Liga
  • 21 May 2023Pardubice 1–2 ZlinCzech Liga

The result against the call

Pardubice beat Zlin 3–0. The model had made a win for Pardubice its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Marek Icha 15' for Pardubice, Victor Samuel 33' for Pardubice, Tomas Jelinek 64' for Pardubice. On expected goals it finished 2.21–0.29.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pardubice a 32.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 25.6% after a win, 36.7% after a draw, 41.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.6%, 6.9 points lower than before the match.

For Zlin the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 90.2% going in: 85.5% after a win, 89.8% after a draw, 93.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 93.3%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Pardubice v Zlin has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Pardubice's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Pardubice win47%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Zlin win26%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.