Lincoln vs West Ham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Lincoln 0-6 West Ham.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Lincoln, 30% draw, 41% West Ham — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
West Ham at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lincoln vs West Ham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. WickensG
- 25D. ElereweD
- 22T. HamerD
- 15S. BradleyD
- 20C. ElderD
- 14C. McGrandlesM
- 24I. VarfolomeevM
- 27C. OgbeneM
- 33D. OyegokeM
- 18B. HouseM
- 34F. DraperF
- 8T. BaylissM
- 4A. CoubișD
- 46J. GauciG
- 16D. JefferiesM
- 26Y. KonakM
- 11M. LadefogedF
- 3A. ReachM
- 17R. StreetF
- 6R. TowlerD
- 1M. HermansenG
- 34J. VeltmanD
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 5MoratoD
- 20J. BowenM
- 7A. EngelsM
- 17M. KantéM
- 10M. SolomonM
- 19PabloM
- 9J. PiroeF
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 58A. GolambeckisD
- 14D. MukasaM
- 61L. OrfordM
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 28T. SoučekM
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 35E. AustböF
- 23A. AreolaG
Form going into Lincoln vs West Ham
Lincoln
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Sheffield Utd10 October 2026
- L1-2Swansea19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton5 September 2026
West Ham
All competitions we cover
- D1-1QPR9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Millwall19 September 2026
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton8 September 2026
- W3-0Derby5 September 2026
What these results say
- Lincoln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- West Ham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for West Ham had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lincoln vs West Ham
- 27 September 2023Lincoln 0–1 West HamLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Lincoln and West Ham
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen77
- K. Mavropanos50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
West Ham won 6–0 at Lincoln. The model had made a win for West Ham its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Konstantinos Mavropanos 45' for West Ham, Edvin Austbö 48' for West Ham, Jarrod Bowen 50' for West Ham, Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus 75' for West Ham, Tomáš Souček 79' for West Ham, Tomáš Souček 89' for West Ham. Sent off: Thomas Hamer (Lincoln) 3', Conor McGrandles (Lincoln) 23'. On expected goals it finished 0.39–3.23.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lincoln a 9.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.6% after a win, 9.0% after a draw, 11.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.4%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
For West Ham the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 64.6% going in: 69.2% after a win, 63.4% after a draw, 59.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.2%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Lincoln v West Ham has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 33% / 32% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 29% / 30% / 41%: the biggest move is West Ham's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Lincoln win29%▼ −4
- Draw30%▼ −2
- West Ham win41%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.