Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama CONMEBOL Sudamericana prediction & result
Final score: Boca Juniors 0-1 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Boca Juniors, 25% draw, 21% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
First leg of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Semi-finals tie. Second leg: Vasco da Gama v Boca Juniors, 21 Oct →
Boca Juniors went through 3–2 on aggregate.
All CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Boca Juniors at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Á. MonteroG
- 17L. LozanoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 42F. HerreraD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 25S. AscacíbarM
- 15W. AlarcónM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 19L. FloresF
- 30E. ValenciaF
- 7C. PalaciosF
- 11Á. RomeroF
- 26Marco PellegrinoD
- 53Joaquín RuízF
- 22S. VillaF
- 12L. BreyG
- 27M. BraidaM
- 6R. BattagliaM
- 32A. CostaD
- 4N. FigalD
- 1Léo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 5S. SosaM
- 28AdsonM
- 22A. LescanoM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 11A. GómezM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 7DavidF
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 8JairM
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 2J. RodríguezD
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama
Boca Juniors
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026
- W3-0Union Santa Fe3 October 2026
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
Vasco da Gama
CONMEBOL Sudamericana
- W2-0Santa Fe15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W4-1away to Olimpia20 August 2026
What these results say
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Boca Juniors had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Vasco da Gama
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel41
Vasco da Gama
GoalsAssists
- Adson53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vasco da Gama won 1–0 at Boca Juniors. The model had leaned towards a win for Boca Juniors at 54% and given a win for Vasco da Gama 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Adson 25' for Vasco da Gama. Sent off: Andrés Gómez (Vasco da Gama) 64'. On expected goals it finished 1.55–0.49.
How the call on Boca Juniors v Vasco da Gama has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Boca Juniors's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Boca Juniors win54%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Vasco da Gama win21%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Boca Juniors's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Vasco da Gama's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.