23 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Bohemians vs Shelbourne Premier Division prediction & result

Dalymount Park, Dublin
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Bohemians 0-1 Shelbourne.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Bohemians, 26% draw, 27% Shelbourne — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bohemians at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bohemians0%Draw5%Shelbourne95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Connor Parsons
26'
🔁Ross Tierneyout: Z. Myers
40'
🔁Sadou Dialloout: Patrick Hickey
58'
59'
Jonathan Lunney
67'
🔁Jonathan Lunneyout: Ademipo Odubeko
🔁James Taylorout: Colm Whelan
73'
🔁Ryan Burkeout: Senan Mullen
73'
🔁Harry Patrick Vaughanout: Markuss Strods
73'
84'
🔁John Martinout: Joey Ikala Wuna
85'
⚽Ademipo Odubekoassist: James Norris
89'
🔁Sean Mooreout: Sam Bone

Match stats — Bohemians vs Shelbourne

55%Possession45%
9Shots11
1On target3
2Corners5
0.43xG1.01

Goals against chances

Bohemians0 from 0.43 xGabout what the chances were worth
Shelbourne1 from 1.01 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bohemians 4-2-3-1
  • 25P. WaltersG
  • 16D. PowerD
  • 24C. ByrneD
  • 22S. ToddD
  • 3R. BurkeD
  • 5S. DialloM
  • 6J. FloresM
  • 26R. TierneyM
  • 8H. VaughanM
  • 7C. ParsonsM
  • 18D. James-TaylorF
Substitutes
  • 1K. ChorążkaG
  • 12P. HickeyD
  • 4N. MorahanM
  • 15S. MullenD
  • 11D. RooneyF
  • 32M. StrodsM
  • 9C. WhelanF
  • 23Zane MyersD
  • 21Josh AdamM
Coach: A. Reynolds
Shelbourne 5-4-1
  • 19E. BeachG
  • 17D. KellyD
  • 6J. LunneyD
  • 16O. CaseyD
  • 4K. LedwidgeD
  • 18James Barry NorrisD
  • 22S. MooreM
  • 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
  • 23K. McInroyM
  • 27E. CaffreyM
  • 10J. MartinF
Substitutes
  • 31C. WalshG
  • 55James RocheD
  • 44Daniel RingF
  • 11M. OdubekoF
  • 36W. JarvisM
  • 2S. GannonD
  • 9S. BoydF
  • 15S. BoneD
  • 56J. WunaF
Coach: J. Russell

Form going into Bohemians vs Shelbourne

Bohemians

Premier Division

  • W2-1Waterford16 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers12 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Dundalk2 October 2026

Shelbourne

Premier Division

  • W2-1away to St Patrick's Athletic16 October 2026
  • W5-1Sligo Rovers9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Galway United25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Bohemians3619896344+1965
4Shelbourne361213115250+249

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bohemians vs Shelbourne

  • 22 June 2026Shelbourne 0–3 BohemiansPremier Division
  • 4 May 2026Bohemians 2–2 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 16 March 2026Shelbourne 0–0 BohemiansPremier Division
  • 24 January 2026Bohemians 2–2 ShelbourneFriendlies Clubs
  • 26 October 2025Bohemians 2–3 ShelbournePremier Division
  • 9 August 2025Shelbourne 2–2 BohemiansPremier Division

Leading scorers: Bohemians and Shelbourne

Bohemians

GoalsAssists

  • C. Whelan136
  • R. Tierney113

Shelbourne

GoalsAssists

  • H. Wood85
  • D. Kelly84
  • J. Martin82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shelbourne won 1–0 at Bohemians. The model had leaned towards a win for Bohemians at 47% and given a win for Shelbourne 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Ademipo Odubeko 85' for Shelbourne. On expected goals it finished 0.43–1.01.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bohemians a 8.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 14.0% after a win, 2.9% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

For Shelbourne the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 58.1% going in: 87.2% after a win, 54.3% after a draw, 43.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.2%, 29.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bohemians v Shelbourne has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Bohemians's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Bohemians win47%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Shelbourne win27%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.