Waterford vs Drogheda United Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Waterford 3-1 Drogheda United.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Waterford, 27% draw, 27% Drogheda United — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Waterford at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Waterford vs Drogheda United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. McMullanG
- 16H. CannD
- 5J. MahonD
- 13K. LongD
- 3Benny CoutoD
- 2J. HoustonM
- 7N. MaweneM
- 8E. McLaughlinM
- 10C. NoonanM
- 9P. AmondF
- 18T. LonerganF
- 32G. AmeduD
- 6J. AshtonD
- 11T. CoyleF
- 21Arlo Ricky Hugh DohertyG
- 17J. FariaM
- 15L. HeeneyM
- 27D. McMenamyM
- 20J. VoilåsF
- 12B. McKenzieD
- 44Fynn Michael Cordell TalleyG
- 4A. QuinnD
- 22C. KeeleyD
- 5Leo BurneyD
- 2E. AgbajeM
- 8Ethan O'BrienM
- 10B. KavanaghM
- 17S. FarrellM
- 3C. KaneM
- 24W. DavisF
- 11T. OluwaF
- 14M. DoyleF
- 36theo hennessyG
- 31K. CruiseD
- 18J. BolgerD
- 15A. BatesM
- 25R. MarkeyF
- 9K. AncelinF
- 6J. GoddenM
- 32D. MareD
Form going into Waterford vs Drogheda United
Waterford
Premier Division
- W3-2Galway United19 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bohemians16 October 2026
- L2-3away to Shamrock Rovers18 September 2026
Drogheda United
Premier Division
- W2-0Derry City16 October 2026
- L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers8 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Waterford | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 43 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Waterford vs Drogheda United
- 29 May 2026Drogheda United 3–3 WaterfordPremier Division
- 18 May 2026Waterford 2–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 13 February 2026Drogheda United 2–0 WaterfordPremier Division
- 5 October 2025Waterford 2–0 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 8 August 2025Drogheda United 0–0 WaterfordPremier Division
- 30 May 2025Waterford 2–2 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
Leading scorers: Waterford and Drogheda United
Waterford
GoalsAssists
- T. Lonergan167
- P. Amond141
Drogheda United
GoalsAssists
- M. Doyle111
- B. Kavanagh65
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Waterford beat Drogheda United 3–1. The model had made a win for Waterford its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Leo Burney 24' for Drogheda United, H. Cann 43' for Waterford, C.Noonan 67' for Waterford, Padraig Amond 83' for Waterford. On expected goals it finished 2.05–1.08.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.