23 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Galway United vs St Patrick's Athletic Premier Division prediction & result

Eamonn Deacy Park, Galway
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Galway United 0-0 St Patrick's Athletic.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Galway United, 31% draw, 40% St Patrick's Athletic — fair odds of 3.45, 3.23 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St Patrick's Athletic at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Galway United3%Draw94%St Patrick's Athletic3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Connor Barratt
51'
61'
🔁Romal Palmerout: Kian Leavy
61'
🔁Ryan Sheridanout: Sean Hoare
70'
Sean Hoare
72'
🔁Sean Hoareout: Sean mchale
🔁Ed McCarthyout: Dylan Connolly
80'
🔁Kristopher Twardekout: francely lomboto
80'
Lee Devitt Molloy
81'
82'
🔁Christopher Forresterout: Anthony Olusanya
82'
🔁Aidan Keenaout: Jamie Lennon
Aaron Bolger
87'

Match stats — Galway United vs St Patrick's Athletic

36%Possession64%
11Shots12
2On target1
1Corners1
0.67xG0.66

Goals against chances

Galway United0 from 0.67 xGless than the chances were worth
St Patrick's Athletic0 from 0.66 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Galway United 3-4-3
  • 16Hugo Alberto Pires da CunhaG
  • 3Connor BarrattD
  • 2A. O'ConnorD
  • 12Gianfranco FacchineriD
  • 11K. TwardekM
  • 8A. BolgerM
  • 10D. HurleyM
  • 20L. DevittM
  • 4J. KeohaneF
  • 7S. WalshF
  • 24E. McCarthyF
Substitutes
  • 23F. PierrotF
  • 32Vincent AngeliniG
  • 21D. ConnollyF
  • 9F. LombotoF
  • 17Junior ThiamM
  • 54C. WhittakerM
  • 28J. MorahanD
Coach: John Caulfield
St Patrick's Athletic 3-1-4-2
  • 94J. AnangG
  • 4J. RedmondD
  • 16D. NugentD
  • 24L. TurnerD
  • 8C. ForresterM
  • 23J. BrownM
  • 48R. SheridanM
  • 17R. PalmerM
  • 11J. McClellandM
  • 27R. EdmondsonF
  • 9A. KeenaF
Substitutes
  • 33S. McHaleD
  • 21A. OlusanyaF
  • 1D. RogersG
  • 6J. LennonM
  • 10K. LeavyM
  • 7Z. ElbouzediF
  • 3A. BreslinD
  • 19B. BaggleyM
  • 2S. HoareD
Coach: S. Kenny

Form going into Galway United vs St Patrick's Athletic

Galway United

Premier Division

  • L2-3away to Waterford19 October 2026
  • W2-0Shamrock Rovers16 October 2026
  • D1-1Shelbourne25 September 2026

St Patrick's Athletic

Premier Division

  • L0-1away to Derry City19 October 2026
  • L1-2Shelbourne16 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Sligo Rovers19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Galway United361012144653-742
3St Patrick's Athletic36179105531+2460

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Galway United vs St Patrick's Athletic

  • 3 July 2026St Patrick's Athletic 3–0 Galway UnitedPremier Division
  • 1 May 2026Galway United 2–2 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
  • 2 March 2026St Patrick's Athletic 1–0 Galway UnitedPremier Division
  • 19 September 2025St Patrick's Athletic 1–1 Galway UnitedPremier Division
  • 14 September 2025St Patrick's Athletic 3–1 Galway UnitedFAI Cup
  • 20 June 2025Galway United 3–1 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division

Leading scorers: Galway United and St Patrick's Athletic

Galway United

GoalsAssists

  • K. Twardek86
  • J. Keohane73

St Patrick's Athletic

GoalsAssists

  • A. Keena105
  • R. Edmondson101
  • K. Leavy73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Galway United and St Patrick's Athletic drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for St Patrick's Athletic at 40% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.67–0.66.

How the call on Galway United v St Patrick's Athletic has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 26% / 31% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 29% / 31% / 40%: the biggest move is Galway United's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Galway United win29%▲ +3
  2. Draw31%=
  3. St Patrick's Athletic win40%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.