23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers Premier Division prediction & result

Tallaght Stadium, Dublin
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Shamrock Rovers 4-0 Sligo Rovers.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Shamrock Rovers, 22% draw, 12% Sligo Rovers — fair odds of 1.52, 4.55 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shamrock Rovers at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shamrock Rovers99%Draw1%Sligo Rovers0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

William Fitzgerald
36'
⚽Adam Brennanassist: John McGovern
39'
⚽Adam Brennanassist: Graham Burke
41'
🔁William Fitzgeraldout: Jake Mulraney
45'
55'
🔁James McManusout: Luke Pearce
55'
🔁Archie Meekisonout: Cian Kavanagh
🔁John McGovernout: Aaron Greene
61'
63'
🔁Daire Pattonout: A. Gabbidon
70'
Jack Shorrock
⚽Aaron Greene
71'
🔁Tunmise Sobowaleout: Luke O'Regan
73'
⚽Dylan Watts
74'
🔁Graham Burkeout: Jonathan Afolabi
78'
🔁Dylan Wattsout: Gary O'Neill
79'
79'
🔁sean stewartout: kyle mcdonagh
79'
🔁Kaiyne Wooleryout: Ryan O'Kane
82'
Seb Quirk

Match stats — Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers

74%Possession26%
17Shots6
9On target2
7Corners0
1.8xG1.13

Goals against chances

Shamrock Rovers4 from 1.80 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sligo Rovers0 from 1.13 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Shamrock Rovers 3-4-2-1
  • 1E. McGintyG
  • 6D. ClearyD
  • 4PicoD
  • 5L. GraceD
  • 22T. SobowaleM
  • 24W. FitzgeraldM
  • 26John O'SullivanM
  • 19A. BrennanM
  • 7D. WattsM
  • 10G. BurkeM
  • 88J. McGovernF
Substitutes
  • 18J. AfolabiF
  • 9A. GreeneF
  • 34B. MahonF
  • 2A. MatthewsD
  • 11J. MulraneyM
  • 16G. O'NeillM
  • 17L. O'ReganM
  • 27C. O'SullivanD
  • 25L. SteacyG
Coach: S. Bradley
Sligo Rovers 4-2-3-1
  • 1Liam John HughesG
  • 4S. QuirkD
  • 15O. DenhamD
  • 52G. McElroyD
  • 3Sean StewartD
  • 6L. YoungM
  • 71D. PattonM
  • 10A. MeekisonM
  • 14J. McManusM
  • 7J. ShorrockM
  • 41K. WooleryF
Substitutes
  • 9L. PearceF
  • 28R. O'KaneF
  • 11C. KavanaghF
  • 49Ross Ruane-DaltonF
  • 61Conor CannonD
  • 51Aidan GabbidonD
  • 23K. McDonaghM
  • 32Charlie McgarveyG
  • 24J. O'DonnellF
Coach: D. Purse

Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers

Shamrock Rovers

Premier Division

  • L0-2away to Galway United16 October 2026
  • W2-1Bohemians12 October 2026
  • W3-1Drogheda United8 October 2026

Sligo Rovers

Premier Division

  • D1-1Dundalk17 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Shelbourne9 October 2026
  • L0-1St Patrick's Athletic19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Shamrock Rovers3620885938+2168
10Sligo Rovers36510212866-3825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers

  • 3 July 2026Sligo Rovers 1–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 22 May 2026Shamrock Rovers 1–2 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 13 March 2026Sligo Rovers 0–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 1 November 2025Shamrock Rovers 1–2 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 5 July 2025Sligo Rovers 2–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
  • 5 May 2025Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division

Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers

Shamrock Rovers

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGovern107
  • G. Burke84

Sligo Rovers

No player in Premier Division's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shamrock Rovers beat Sligo Rovers 4–0. The model had made a win for Shamrock Rovers its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Adam Brennan 39' for Shamrock Rovers, Adam Brennan 41' for Shamrock Rovers, Aaron Greene 71' for Shamrock Rovers, Dylan Watts 74' for Shamrock Rovers. On expected goals it finished 1.80–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shamrock Rovers a 91.1% chance to finish top of the regular season: 96.2% after a win, 86.3% after a draw, 65.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.2%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 64% / 23% / 13% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 66% / 22% / 12%: the biggest move is Shamrock Rovers's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Shamrock Rovers win66%▲ +2
  2. Draw22%▼ −1
  3. Sligo Rovers win12%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.