23 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Derry City vs Dundalk Premier Division prediction & result

The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Derry City 2-1 Dundalk.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Derry City, 25% draw, 24% Dundalk — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Derry City at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derry City97%Draw3%Dundalk0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽James Clarke
12'
Darragh Burns
43'
53'
Keith Buckley
56'
🔁Declan McDaidout: Harry Groome
56'
🔁Egor Vasseninout: Robert Cornwall
59'
Trevor Clarke
🔁Adam O'Reillyout: Darragh Markey
67'
69'
🔁Tyreke Wilsonout: Harvey Warren
69'
🔁Trevor Clarkeout: Cian dillon
69'
🔁Keith Buckleyout: shane tracey
⚽Michael Duffyassist: Darragh Burns
71'
🔁Michael Duffyout: Gavin Whyte
74'
🔁Darragh Burnsout: Kévin Santos
74'
79'
⚽shane tracey
🔁James Clarkeout: Terence Doherty
87'
🔁Cameron Dummiganout: Conor Barry
87'
Ellis Chapman
89'

Match stats — Derry City vs Dundalk

53%Possession47%
16Shots12
8On target5
2Corners5
1.76xG0.82

Goals against chances

Derry City2 from 1.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
Dundalk1 from 0.82 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Derry City 3-4-3
  • 1B. MaherG
  • 23C. DummiganD
  • 4J. StottD
  • 3Patrick McCleanD
  • 12D. BurnsM
  • 8A. O'ReillyM
  • 14E. ChapmanM
  • 19B. FlemingM
  • 15J. ClarkeF
  • 17N. TwiskF
  • 7M. DuffyF
Substitutes
  • 22C. BarrD
  • 32T. DohertyF
  • 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
  • 10D. MarkeyM
  • 13Tom NorcottG
  • 29T. SmithF
  • 11G. WhyteM
  • 21Kévin SantosM
  • 25Christy GroganD
Coach: Mark Connolly
Dundalk 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. MinogueG
  • 3B. BurnsD
  • 44T. GrivostiD
  • 16E. VasseninD
  • 22T. WilsonD
  • 18K. BuckleyM
  • 6A. DervinM
  • 27D. McDaidM
  • 7D. HorganM
  • 15T. ClarkeM
  • 11R. TeahanF
Substitutes
  • 14Norman GarbettM
  • 10Leonardo GaxhaF
  • 8H. GroomeM
  • 12L. MulliganD
  • 17S. TraceyM
  • 5H. WarrenD
  • 9C. DillonF
  • 24R. CornwallD
  • 13P. CherrieG
Coach: C. Kilduff

Form going into Derry City vs Dundalk

Derry City

Premier Division

  • W1-0St Patrick's Athletic19 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Drogheda United16 October 2026
  • W1-0Galway United18 September 2026

Dundalk

Premier Division

  • D1-1away to Sligo Rovers17 October 2026
  • L1-2Bohemians2 October 2026
  • L2-3Shelbourne18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Derry City361115105047+348
6Dundalk361112135559-445

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Derry City vs Dundalk

  • 6 September 2026Derry City 4–2 DundalkFAI Cup
  • 29 May 2026Dundalk 2–1 Derry CityPremier Division
  • 10 April 2026Dundalk 2–2 Derry CityPremier Division
  • 13 February 2026Derry City 2–2 DundalkPremier Division
  • 18 October 2024Dundalk 0–2 Derry CityPremier Division
  • 9 August 2024Derry City 1–1 DundalkPremier Division

Leading scorers: Derry City and Dundalk

Derry City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Duffy115
  • J. Clarke73

Dundalk

GoalsAssists

  • D. Horgan1210
  • G. Arubi73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Derry City beat Dundalk 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Derry City at 51%. The goals: James Clarke 12' for Derry City, Michael Duffy 71' for Derry City, shane tracey 79' for Dundalk. On expected goals it finished 1.76–0.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Derry City a 39.4% chance to finish in the top four: 58.1% after a win, 21.8% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.1%, 18.7 points higher than before the match.

For Dundalk the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 2.2% going in: 9.0% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.