6 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Bologna vs Sassuolo Serie A prediction & result

Bologna
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Bologna 2-2 Sassuolo.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bologna, 29% draw, 28% Sassuolo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bologna at 43% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bologna0%Draw5%Sassuolo95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Josh Doig
38'
🔁Cristian Volpatoout: Domenico Berardi
🔁Rahim Alhassaneout: Juan Miranda
45'
🔁Jens Odgaardout: Marco Libra
45'
🔁Tommaso Pobegaout: Nikola Moro
45'
⚽Roberto Piccoliassist: Juan Miranda
50'
Emil Holm
51'
Roberto Piccoli
53'
54'
Jay Idzes
56'
⚽Vasilije Adzic
60'
🔁Vasilije Adzicout: Kristian Thorstvedt
60'
🔁Luca Lipaniout: Ibrahim Sulemana
🔁Nicolo Cambiaghiout: Artem Dovbyk
66'
80'
🔁Nemanja Matićout: Andrea Ghion
80'
🔁Josh Doigout: Rafael Obrador
🔁Federico Bernardeschiout: Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda
86'
⚽Artem Dovbyk
90+1'
Artem Dovbyk
90+1'
Domenico Tedesco
90+4'

Match stats — Bologna vs Sassuolo

62%Possession38%
21Shots15
5On target6
10Corners7

Line-ups

Bologna 4-2-3-1
  • 1Ł. SkorupskiG
  • 2E. HolmD
  • 14T. HeggemD
  • 3A. TheateD
  • 23R. AlhassaneD
  • 19L. FergusonM
  • 4T. PobegaM
  • 10F. BernardeschiM
  • 21J. OdgaardM
  • 28N. CambiaghiM
  • 91R. PiccoliF
Substitutes
  • 8M. AmondarainM
  • 29L. De SilvestriD
  • 9A. DovbykF
  • 22J. EnemF
  • 20N. ZorteaD
  • 41M. VitíkD
  • 25M. PessinaG
  • 6N. MoroM
  • 33Juan MirandaD
Coach: D. Tedesco
Sassuolo 4-3-3
  • 49A. MurićG
  • 46S. CinquegranoD
  • 21J. IdzesD
  • 16F. LeysenD
  • 3J. DoigD
  • 17Vasilije AdžićM
  • 18N. MatićM
  • 35L. LipaniM
  • 7C. VolpatoF
  • 9K. BowieF
  • 45A. LaurientéF
Substitutes
  • 94S. EspositoF
  • 10D. BerardiF
  • 25B. DomínguezF
  • 8A. GhionM
  • 33Rafael ObradorD
  • 26C. OdenthalD
  • 77N. PieriniF
  • 12G. SatalinoG
  • 55I. SulemanaM
Coach: A. Aquilani

Form going into Bologna vs Sassuolo

Bologna

  • L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
  • L0-1Lazio24 August 2026

Sassuolo

  • W2-1Torino29 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Atalanta23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Bologna401325-31
9Sassuolo421187+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bologna vs Sassuolo

  • 6 September 2026Bologna 2–2 SassuoloSerie A
  • 15 March 2026Sassuolo 0–1 BolognaSerie A
  • 28 December 2025Bologna 1–1 SassuoloSerie A
  • 3 February 2024Bologna 4–2 SassuoloSerie A
  • 28 October 2023Sassuolo 1–1 BolognaSerie A
  • 8 May 2023Sassuolo 1–1 BolognaSerie A

Leading scorers: Bologna and Sassuolo

Bologna

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Sassuolo

  • Vasilije Adžić2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.