6 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Parma vs Monza Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Parma 1-1 Monza.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Parma, 32% draw, 35% Monza — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Monza at 35% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Parma3%Draw94%Monza3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
⚽Jay Robinsonassist: Ricardo Mangas
41'
Michael Folorunsho
🔁Diego Carlosout: Lautaro Valenti
45'
🔁Christian Ordóñezout: Vincent Sierro
45'
🔁Giovanni Fabbianout: Matija Frigan
45'
54'
🔁Omari Forsonout: Andrea Colpani
🔁José David Romeroout: Simone Lontani
55'
⚽Simone Lontani
60'
62'
🔁Dany Motaout: Leonardo Colombo
Mandela Keita
66'
68'
Leonardo Colombo
🔁Sascha Britschgiout: Pontus Almqvist
77'
81'
🔁Eddy Kouadioout: Adam Bakoune
81'
🔁Jay Robinsonout: Mathis Mout
81'
🔁Andrea Carboniout: Yvan Maye
Pontus Almqvist
83'

Match stats — Parma vs Monza

46%Possession54%
7Shots16
3On target5
6Corners3

Line-ups

Parma 3-5-2
  • 40E. CorviG
  • 15E. Del PratoD
  • 34Diego CarlosD
  • 37M. TroiloD
  • 27S. BritschgiM
  • 32C. OrdoñezM
  • 16M. KeitaM
  • 80G. FabbianM
  • 14E. ValeriM
  • 9D. RomeroF
  • 19E. TouréF
Substitutes
  • 11P. AlmqvistF
  • 29F. CarboniD
  • 8B. CremaschiM
  • 30G. DaffaraG
  • 72D. DrobnicD
  • 23N. ElphegeF
  • 20M. FriganF
  • 22S. GhidottiG
  • 47Abdou KonateM
Coach: Carlos Cuesta
Monza 3-4-2-1
  • 20D. ThiamG
  • 60E. KouadioD
  • 3L. LucchesiD
  • 44A. CarboniD
  • 19S. BirindelliM
  • 90M. FolorunshoM
  • 14E. AkinsanmiroM
  • 7Ricardo MangasM
  • 11O. ForsonM
  • 46Jay RobinsonM
  • 47Dany MotaF
Substitutes
  • 6V. AntovD
  • 1N. TörnqvistG
  • 24A. BakouneD
  • 21L. ColomboM
  • 28A. ColpaniM
  • 2S. GoglichidzeD
  • 5Y. MayeD
  • 80M. MoutM
  • 8M. OndoaM
Coach: I. Juric

Form going into Parma vs Monza

Parma

  • L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
  • L0-1Cagliari22 August 2026

Monza

  • L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Inter22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Parma401326-41
18Monza4013611-51

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Parma vs Monza

  • 6 September 2026Parma 1–1 MonzaSerie A
  • 15 March 2025Monza 1–1 ParmaSerie A
  • 28 December 2024Parma 2–1 MonzaSerie A
  • 2 March 2022Monza 1–1 ParmaSerie B
  • 17 October 2021Parma 0–0 MonzaSerie B
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.