6 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Juventus vs AC Milan Serie A prediction & result

Allianz Stadium, Turin
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Juventus 1-1 AC Milan.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Juventus, 27% draw, 23% AC Milan — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Juventus at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Juventus0%Draw6%AC Milan94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

61'
🔁Alexis Saelemaekersout: Ruben Loftus-Cheek
61'
🔁Diego Moreiraout: Alphadjo Cissè
61'
🔁Adrien Rabiotout: Samuel Chukwueze
🔁Kerim Alajbegovicout: Jérémie Boga
64'
🔁Nicolás Iván Gonzalezout: Teun Koopmeiners
64'
68'
⚽Alphadjo Cissèassist: Samuel Chukwueze
🔁Douglas Luiz Soaresout: Nick Woltemade
76'
79'
Pervis Estupinan
82'
🔁Luka Modrićout: Ardon Jashari
88'
🔁Mario Gilaout: Filippo Terracciano
🔁Francisco Conceicaoout: Edon Zhegrova
88'
🔁Zeki Çelikout: Federico Gatti
88'
90+2'
Koni De Winter
⚽Federico Gattiassist: Teun Koopmeiners
90+2'
Federico Gatti
90+6'
90+6'
Alphadjo Cissè

Match stats — Juventus vs AC Milan

49%Possession51%
14Shots3
5On target1
7Corners1

Line-ups

Juventus 4-2-3-1
  • 25G. VicarioG
  • 15P. KaluluD
  • 3BremerD
  • 26J. LucumíD
  • 2Z. ÇelikD
  • 5M. LocatelliM
  • 12Douglas LuizM
  • 7Francisco ConceiçãoM
  • 31N. GonzálezM
  • 17Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
  • 9R. Kolo MuaniF
Substitutes
  • 11E. ZhegrovaF
  • 27N. WoltemadeF
  • 24D. RuganiD
  • 23C. PinsoglioG
  • 43F. PagnuccoM
  • 8T. KoopmeinersM
  • 6L. KellyD
  • 1K. GrabaraG
  • 4F. GattiD
Coach: L. Spalletti
AC Milan 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 34Mario GilaD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 31S. PavlovićD
  • 22Diego MoreiraM
  • 14L. ModrićM
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 2P. EstupiñánM
  • 12A. RabiotM
  • 56A. SaelemaekersM
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
Substitutes
  • 33D. BartesaghiD
  • 13S. BocoumD
  • 73F. CamardaF
  • 21S. ChukwuezeF
  • 70A. CissèM
  • 28C. ComottoM
  • 96L. TorrianiG
  • 23F. TomoriD
  • 1P. TerraccianoG
Coach: Ruben Amorim

Form going into Juventus vs AC Milan

Juventus

  • W2-0Parma29 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Frosinone23 August 2026

AC Milan

  • W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Juventus421164+27
6AC Milan422074+38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Juventus vs AC Milan

  • 6 September 2026Juventus 1–1 AC MilanSerie A
  • 26 April 2026AC Milan 0–0 JuventusSerie A
  • 5 October 2025Juventus 0–0 AC MilanSerie A
  • 18 January 2025Juventus 2–0 AC MilanSerie A
  • 3 January 2025Juventus 1–2 AC MilanSuper Cup
  • 23 November 2024AC Milan 0–0 JuventusSerie A

Leading scorers: Juventus and AC Milan

Juventus

  • E. Zhegrova2 goals

AC Milan

  • A. Cissè2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.