Bolton vs West Ham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 2-3 West Ham.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Bolton, 29% draw, 41% West Ham — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs West Ham
Line-ups
- 31G. BazunuG
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 18E. ToalD
- 3C. Forino-JosephD
- 25M. ConwayD
- 8J. SheehanM
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 16S. Iling-JuniorM
- 20Ruben RodriguesM
- 7K. DongM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 4X. SimonsM
- 26J. NelsonF
- 45J. McAteeF
- 17A. ItoM
- 39R. HardieF
- 11T. GaleF
- 6B. DaviesD
- 1J. BonhamG
- 9T. BairF
- 1M. HermansenG
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 20J. BowenM
- 14D. MukasaM
- 7A. EngelsM
- 35E. AustböM
- 17M. KantéM
- 19PabloF
- 34J. VeltmanD
- 10M. SolomonF
- 9J. PiroeF
- 61L. OrfordM
- 5MoratoD
- 21K. LamadridM
- 49F. HerrickG
- 18A. BoiroD
- 66J. AjalaF
Form going into Bolton vs West Ham
Bolton
- L0-4away to Millwall5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026
West Ham
- W3-0Derby5 September 2026
- W4-2Wolves1 September 2026
- D1-1away to Watford29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs West Ham
- 8 September 2026Bolton 2–3 West HamChampionship
- 19 September 2017West Ham 3–0 BoltonLeague Cup
- 9 April 2011Bolton 3–0 West HamPremier League
- 21 August 2010West Ham 1–3 BoltonPremier League
Leading scorers: Bolton and West Ham
Bolton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
West Ham
- J. Bowen4 goals3 assists
- J. Piroe3 goals
- K. Mavropanos3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.