Cardiff vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Cardiff 1-1 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Cardiff, 29% draw, 32% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cardiff at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cardiff vs Stoke City
Line-ups
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 5K. BielikD
- 4G. OshoD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 11O. TannerM
- 8J. MoylanM
- 16C. WillockM
- 9Y. SalechF
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 30H. TyrerG
- 40N. AnyadikeD
- 45Cian AshfordF
- 44R. KpakioD
- 43P. MorenoM
- 47C. RobinsonF
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 16B. WilmotD
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 13J. DevennyM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 21L. BombinoM
- 15G. HirstF
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
- 17E. BocatD
- 11L. CisséF
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 7J. McGlynnM
- 4B. PearsonM
- 19T. RigoM
- 43F. AndersonD
Form going into Cardiff vs Stoke City
Cardiff
- L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026
- L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026
- D2-2Sheffield Utd29 August 2026
Stoke City
- W4-0Charlton5 September 2026
- W1-0Norwich1 September 2026
- L1-4away to Wolves29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Stoke City
- 8 September 2026Cardiff 1–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 12 April 2025Cardiff 0–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 8 February 2025Stoke City 3–3 CardiffFA Cup
- 14 December 2024Stoke City 2–2 CardiffChampionship
- 24 February 2024Cardiff 2–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 4 November 2023Stoke City 0–0 CardiffChampionship
Leading scorers: Cardiff and Stoke City
Cardiff
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Stoke City
- E. Galbraith3 goals
- E. Bocat2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.