8 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Cardiff vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Cardiff 1-1 Stoke City.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Cardiff, 29% draw, 32% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cardiff at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cardiff4%Draw92%Stoke City4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Ben Johnsonassist: Róbert Boženík
27'
Ben Wilmot
Perry Tian Hee Ng
45+2'
59'
🔁Luca Bombinoout: Eric Junior Bocat
59'
🔁George Hirstout: Bae Jun-ho
⚽Joel Colwillassist: Christopher Willock
63'
69'
🔁Justin Devennyout: Lamine Cissé
69'
🔁Róbert Boženíkout: Jack Mcglynn
81'
Luke Graham
🔁Christopher Willockout: C. Ashford
82'

Match stats — Cardiff vs Stoke City

71%Possession29%
26Shots12
7On target4
7Corners5

Line-ups

Cardiff 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. TrottG
  • 38P. NgD
  • 5K. BielikD
  • 4G. OshoD
  • 3J. BaganD
  • 18A. RobertsonM
  • 27J. ColwillM
  • 11O. TannerM
  • 8J. MoylanM
  • 16C. WillockM
  • 9Y. SalechF
Substitutes
  • 14D. TurnbullM
  • 30H. TyrerG
  • 40N. AnyadikeD
  • 45Cian AshfordF
  • 44R. KpakioD
  • 43P. MorenoM
  • 47C. RobinsonF
  • 23C. ScanlonD
  • 33R. TankiewiczM
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy
Stoke City 3-5-2
  • 1V. JohanssonG
  • 16B. WilmotD
  • 40M. TalovierovD
  • 5L. GrahamD
  • 2B. JohnsonM
  • 13J. DevennyM
  • 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
  • 8E. GalbraithM
  • 21L. BombinoM
  • 15G. HirstF
  • 9R. BoženíkF
Substitutes
  • 10Bae Jun-HoM
  • 17E. BocatD
  • 11L. CisséF
  • 24J. GriffithsG
  • 42M. ManhoefF
  • 7J. McGlynnM
  • 4B. PearsonM
  • 19T. RigoM
  • 43F. AndersonD
Coach: M. Robins

Form going into Cardiff vs Stoke City

Cardiff

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026
  • D2-2Sheffield Utd29 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Derby22 August 2026
  • D1-1Wrexham17 August 2026

Stoke City

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0Charlton5 September 2026
  • W1-0Norwich1 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Wolves29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Southampton22 August 2026
  • L1-2Swansea15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Cardiff did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Stoke City had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Cardiff154652727018
3Stoke City159242418+629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Stoke City

  • 12 April 2025Cardiff 0–1 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 8 February 2025Stoke City 3–3 CardiffFA Cup
  • 14 December 2024Stoke City 2–2 CardiffChampionship
  • 24 February 2024Cardiff 2–1 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 4 November 2023Stoke City 0–0 CardiffChampionship

The full Cardiff vs Stoke City record →

Leading scorers: Cardiff and Stoke City

Cardiff

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moylan103
  • Y. Salech51

Stoke City

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGlynn52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cardiff and Stoke City drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Cardiff at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ben Johnson 22' for Stoke City, Joel Colwill 63' for Cardiff.

How the call on Cardiff v Stoke City has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Cardiff's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Cardiff win39%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Stoke City win32%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.