8 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Southampton vs Swansea Championship prediction & result

Southampton
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Southampton 3-1 Swansea.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Southampton, 29% draw, 29% Swansea — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Southampton at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Southampton99%Draw1%Swansea0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Finn Azazassist: Flynn Downes
9'
⚽Cyle Larinassist: James Bree
33'
45'
🔁Joseph Amankwaah Opokuout: Ronald Pereira Martins
52'
⚽Zan Vipotnik (pen)
54'
Ronald Pereira Martins
63'
🔁Jay Fultonout: melker widell
63'
🔁Elijah Justout: Stephen Eustáquio
70'
🔁Zan Vipotnikout: Adam Idah
🔁Tom Fellowsout: Kuryu Matsuki
76'
78'
🔁Moussa Kounfolo Yeoout: Eom Ji-Sung
⚽Léo Scienzaassist: Kuryu Matsuki
78'
🔁Cyle Larinout: Divin Mubama
85'
🔁Léo Scienzaout: Samuel Edozie
85'
🔁James Ward-Prowseout: Cameron Bragg
90+2'

Match stats — Southampton vs Swansea

49%Possession51%
16Shots10
4On target2
9Corners3

Line-ups

Southampton 4-2-3-1
  • 1Daniel PeretzG
  • 14J. BreeD
  • 15N. Wood-GordonD
  • 13K. SchlotterbeckD
  • 3R. ManningD
  • 4F. DownesM
  • 30J. Ward-ProwseM
  • 18T. FellowsM
  • 10F. AzazM
  • 7Léo ScienzaM
  • 9C. LarinF
Substitutes
  • 11L. DobbinF
  • 26Cameron BraggM
  • 6Z. AbbottD
  • 23S. EdozieM
  • 25G. LongG
  • 27K. MatsukiM
  • 28D. MubamaF
  • 34WelingtonD
  • 5J. StephensD
Coach: Tonda Eckert
Swansea 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. VigourouxG
  • 26F. LissahD
  • 5B. CabangoD
  • 23S. WelshD
  • 14J. TymonD
  • 4J. FultonM
  • 6M. StamenićM
  • 30Joseph OkopuM
  • 8E. JustM
  • 49M. YeoM
  • 9Z. VipotnikF
Substitutes
  • 10Eom Ji-SungF
  • 46S. EustáquioM
  • 1A. FisherG
  • 33A. IdahF
  • 2J. KeyD
  • 20Tiago ParenteD
  • 35RonaldF
  • 3J. SeeltD
  • 7M. WidellM
Coach: Vítor Matos

Form going into Southampton vs Swansea

Southampton

  • D1-1away to Lincoln5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Birmingham1 September 2026
  • W5-1Millwall29 August 2026

Swansea

  • D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026
  • W2-0Watford1 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Derby29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Southampton7421188+1010
2Swansea7421115+614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Southampton vs Swansea

  • 8 September 2026Southampton 3–1 SwanseaChampionship
  • 18 April 2026Swansea 1–2 SouthamptonChampionship
  • 18 October 2025Southampton 0–0 SwanseaChampionship
  • 12 January 2025Southampton 3–0 SwanseaFA Cup
  • 20 January 2024Swansea 1–3 SouthamptonChampionship
  • 26 December 2023Southampton 5–0 SwanseaChampionship

Leading scorers: Southampton and Swansea

Southampton

  • C. Larin7 goals
  • F. Azaz3 goals4 assists

Swansea

  • A. Idah3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.