Southampton vs Swansea Championship prediction & result
Final score: Southampton 3-1 Swansea.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Southampton, 29% draw, 29% Swansea — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Southampton at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Southampton vs Swansea
Line-ups
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14J. BreeD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 3R. ManningD
- 4F. DownesM
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 18T. FellowsM
- 10F. AzazM
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 9C. LarinF
- 11L. DobbinF
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 23S. EdozieM
- 25G. LongG
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 28D. MubamaF
- 34WelingtonD
- 5J. StephensD
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 26F. LissahD
- 5B. CabangoD
- 23S. WelshD
- 14J. TymonD
- 4J. FultonM
- 6M. StamenićM
- 30Joseph OkopuM
- 8E. JustM
- 49M. YeoM
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 10Eom Ji-SungF
- 46S. EustáquioM
- 1A. FisherG
- 33A. IdahF
- 2J. KeyD
- 20Tiago ParenteD
- 35RonaldF
- 3J. SeeltD
- 7M. WidellM
Form going into Southampton vs Swansea
Southampton
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Lincoln5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Birmingham1 September 2026
- W5-1Millwall29 August 2026
- W3-1Stoke City22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Watford16 August 2026
Swansea
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026
- W2-0Watford1 September 2026
- W3-0away to Derby29 August 2026
- D0-0Sheffield Utd22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Stoke City15 August 2026
What these results say
- Southampton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Southampton.
- Swansea went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Swansea kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Swansea
- 18 April 2026Swansea 1–2 SouthamptonChampionship
- 18 October 2025Southampton 0–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 12 January 2025Southampton 3–0 SwanseaFA Cup
- 20 January 2024Swansea 1–3 SouthamptonChampionship
- 26 December 2023Southampton 5–0 SwanseaChampionship
Leading scorers: Southampton and Swansea
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Swansea
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Southampton beat Swansea 3–1. The model had made a win for Southampton its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Finn Azaz 9' for Southampton, Cyle Larin 33' for Southampton, Zan Vipotnik (penalty) 52' for Swansea, Léo Scienza 78' for Southampton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.