8 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Wrexham vs Burnley Championship prediction & result

Racecourse Ground, Wrexham
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Wrexham 1-1 Burnley.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Wrexham, 29% draw, 36% Burnley — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Burnley at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wrexham4%Draw92%Burnley4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Issa Kabore
14'
26'
⚽Zeki Amdouniassist: Largie Ramazani
🔁Max Cleworthout: Zak Vyner
30'
🔁Lewis O'Brienout: Oliver Rathbone
45'
🔁Josh Windassout: Callum O'Hare
45'
⚽Jacques Ekomiéassist: Issa Kabore
55'
🔁Kieffer Mooreout: Sam Smith
61'
65'
Aaron Ramsey
68'
🔁Igor Júlioout: Hjalmar Ekdal
69'
🔁Aaron Ramseyout: Lucas Pires Silva
78'
🔁Max Alleyneout: Reo Hatate
Dominic Hyam
84'
🔁Jacques Ekomiéout: Ryan·Longman
85'
86'
Lucas Pires Silva
90'
Reo Hatate

Match stats — Wrexham vs Burnley

52%Possession48%
15Shots19
5On target4
4Corners4

Line-ups

Wrexham 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 4M. CleworthD
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 2C. DoyleD
  • 12I. KaboréM
  • 37M. JamesM
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 3J. EkomiéM
  • 10J. WindassM
  • 27L. O'BrienM
  • 19K. MooreF
Substitutes
  • 6J. WorrallD
  • 21D. WardG
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 28S. SmithF
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 17C. O'HareM
  • 47R. LongmanM
  • 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
  • 33N. BroadheadF
Coach: P. Parkinson
Burnley 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. WeißG
  • 22O. SonneD
  • 2K. WalkerD
  • 44IgorD
  • 14C. RobertsD
  • 8U. RaghouberM
  • 3Max AlleyneM
  • 21A. RamseyM
  • 29J. LaurentM
  • 19L. RamazaniM
  • 11Z. AmdouniF
Substitutes
  • 17A. HountondjiF
  • 27A. BrojaF
  • 30L. CastellF
  • 5R. HatateM
  • 18H. EkdalD
  • 37G. CoudertG
  • 15A. AhmedhodžićD
  • 23Lucas PiresD
  • 47E. ClarkM
Coach: N. Hayen

Form going into Wrexham vs Burnley

Wrexham

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Swansea5 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Millwall2 September 2026
  • L1-2Birmingham28 August 2026
  • D1-1Watford22 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Cardiff17 August 2026

Burnley

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
  • D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to West Brom23 August 2026
  • D2-2West Ham16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Wrexham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Wrexham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Burnley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Wrexham154651820-218
22Burnley151772231-910

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Wrexham and Burnley

Wrexham

GoalsAssists

  • K. Moore52

Burnley

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wrexham and Burnley drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Burnley at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Zeki Amdouni 26' for Burnley, Jacques Ekomié 55' for Wrexham.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.