8 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Wrexham vs Burnley Championship prediction & result

Racecourse Ground, Wrexham
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Wrexham 1-1 Burnley.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Wrexham, 29% draw, 36% Burnley — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Burnley at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wrexham4%Draw92%Burnley4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Issa Kabore
14'
26'
⚽Zeki Amdouniassist: Largie Ramazani
🔁Max Cleworthout: Zak Vyner
30'
🔁Lewis O'Brienout: Oliver Rathbone
45'
🔁Josh Windassout: Callum O'Hare
45'
⚽Jacques Ekomiéassist: Issa Kabore
55'
🔁Kieffer Mooreout: Sam Smith
61'
65'
Aaron Ramsey
68'
🔁Igor Júlioout: Hjalmar Ekdal
69'
🔁Aaron Ramseyout: Lucas Pires Silva
78'
🔁Max Alleyneout: Reo Hatate
Dominic Hyam
84'
🔁Jacques Ekomiéout: Ryan·Longman
85'
86'
Lucas Pires Silva
90'
Reo Hatate

Match stats — Wrexham vs Burnley

52%Possession48%
15Shots19
5On target4
4Corners4

Line-ups

Wrexham 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 4M. CleworthD
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 2C. DoyleD
  • 12I. KaboréM
  • 37M. JamesM
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 3J. EkomiéM
  • 10J. WindassM
  • 27L. O'BrienM
  • 19K. MooreF
Substitutes
  • 6J. WorrallD
  • 21D. WardG
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 28S. SmithF
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 17C. O'HareM
  • 47R. LongmanM
  • 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
  • 33N. BroadheadF
Coach: P. Parkinson
Burnley 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. WeißG
  • 22O. SonneD
  • 2K. WalkerD
  • 44IgorD
  • 14C. RobertsD
  • 8U. RaghouberM
  • 3Max AlleyneM
  • 21A. RamseyM
  • 29J. LaurentM
  • 19L. RamazaniM
  • 11Z. AmdouniF
Substitutes
  • 17A. HountondjiF
  • 27A. BrojaF
  • 30L. CastellF
  • 5R. HatateM
  • 18H. EkdalD
  • 37G. CoudertG
  • 15A. AhmedhodžićD
  • 23Lucas PiresD
  • 47E. ClarkM
Coach: N. Hayen

Form going into Wrexham vs Burnley

Wrexham

  • D0-0away to Swansea5 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Millwall2 September 2026
  • L1-2Birmingham28 August 2026

Burnley

  • L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
  • D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Wrexham7142711-47
24Burnley7034816-83

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Burnley

  • 8 September 2026Wrexham 0–1 BurnleyChampionship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.