10 October 2026, 10:30 UTC

Boluspor vs Antalyaspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Bolu
Referee: Omer Faruk Gultekin, Türkiye
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Boluspor 0-1 Antalyaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Boluspor, 25% draw, 52% Antalyaspor — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Antalyaspor at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Boluspor0%Draw3%Antalyaspor97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
Bünyamin Balci
T. Artuç
36'
62'
🔁Jesper Ceesayout: Doğukan Sinik
62'
🔁Mevlüt Şimşekout: Omer Beyaz
🔁T. Artuçout: Hosue Díaz
64'
68'
⚽Sander van de Streekassist: Doğukan Sinik
🔁Fernando Escobarout: Bertu Ozyurek
74'
🔁Ahmet Can Özdemirout: Furkan Metin
74'
76'
Pedrinho
78'
Sander van de Streek
Furkan Metin
79'
🔁M. Dursunout: Ege Özkayimoglu
80'
85'
🔁Sander van de Streekout: Hasan Yakub İlçin
89'
🔁Nuno Da Costaout: Erdoğan Yeşilyurt
89'
🔁Pedrinhoout: Ahmet Sağat

Match stats — Boluspor vs Antalyaspor

35%Possession65%
9Shots10
4On target4
1Corners5
0.54xG0.72

Goals against chances

Boluspor0 from 0.54 xGless than the chances were worth
Antalyaspor1 from 0.72 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Boluspor 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. TafasG
  • 64Ahmet OzdemirD
  • 50B. GöçmenD
  • 3K. CuestaD
  • 54C. ÖzdemirD
  • 8T. ArtuçM
  • 10Fernando EscobarM
  • 11Furkan KaçmazM
  • 21M. MertM
  • 23Muhammet Zeki DursunM
  • 9R. RivasF
Substitutes
  • 19J. DiazM
  • 14A. KırımD
  • 77N. KorkmazM
  • 6C. YilmazM
  • 22Arda Tuğra SaygıD
  • 2F. MetinD
  • 25M. ÖzkanG
  • 35E. ÖzkayımoğluF
  • 67B. ÖzyürekM
Coach: Mustapha Yatabaré
Antalyaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 77F. PseftisG
  • 7B. BalcıD
  • 4Bugra Tivsiz EnsarD
  • 19S. KarakoçD
  • 11G. VuralD
  • 6S. DikmenM
  • 35J. CeesayM
  • 97M. ŞimşekM
  • 14PedrinhoM
  • 22S. van de StreekM
  • 9Nuno da CostaF
Substitutes
  • 18S. YalçınM
  • 17E. YeşilyurtM
  • 70D. SinikF
  • 27M. YılmazD
  • 89V. SarıD
  • 23A. SağatF
  • 15F. NzabaD
  • 20Hasan Yakub İlçinM
  • 5Ö. BeyazM
Coach: O. Özköylü

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Boluspor131111628-224
8Antalyaspor146262021-120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Boluspor vs Antalyaspor

  • 17 December 2020Antalyaspor 1–0 BolusporTürkiye Kupası
  • 29 April 2015Antalyaspor 1–1 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 14 December 2014Boluspor 0–2 Antalyaspor1. Lig

Leading scorers: Boluspor and Antalyaspor

Boluspor

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Antalyaspor

GoalsAssists

  • S. van de Streek42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Antalyaspor won 1–0 at Boluspor. The model had made a win for Antalyaspor its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Sander van de Streek 68' for Antalyaspor. On expected goals it finished 0.54–0.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Boluspor a 90.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 86.0% after a win, 91.1% after a draw, 91.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.8%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

For Antalyaspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 30.0% going in: 33.6% after a win, 28.2% after a draw, 22.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.6%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Boluspor v Antalyaspor has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 25% / 28% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 23% / 25% / 52%: the biggest move is Antalyaspor's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Boluspor win23%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Antalyaspor win52%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.