İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: İstanbulspor 0-1 Esenler Erokspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% İstanbulspor, 28% draw, 38% Esenler Erokspor — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Esenler Erokspor at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28A. TutarG
- 11B. NızamD
- 5M. OlogoD
- 4D. SahinD
- 89E. UzunhanD
- 3Y. ÖzerD
- 10I. IlievM
- 21D. AydınM
- 15E. MendyM
- 52Ã. DuymazM
- 9M. SolF
- 18Turan TuncerD
- 12K. SönmezM
- 1I. DoganG
- 30Alieu ChamF
- 7PhellipeF
- 81A. AkmanF
- 27M. FallF
- 34A. KaraM
- 61E. SarıalioğluM
- 22E. CanpolatG
- 70F. OrakD
- 21B. ÖztürkD
- 4Luccas ClaroD
- 33E. AlićD
- 8G. KangaM
- 5M. OkyarM
- 17B. ÇobanM
- 7N. JanvierM
- 11M. FayeM
- 99P. GuèyeF
- 77H. BilazerD
- 20M. BuljubašićM
- 53Y. ErdoğanM
- 9K. KanatsızkuşF
- 6T. KaçarM
- 39E. KaşD
- 10R. NiyazM
- 27F. YazganM
- 88A. ZeqiriM
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 8 |
| 10 | Esenler Erokspor | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor
- 17 February 2026İstanbulspor 1–4 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
- 24 September 2025Esenler Erokspor 5–0 İstanbulspor1. Lig
- 4 May 2025Esenler Erokspor 0–3 İstanbulspor1. Lig
- 5 January 2025İstanbulspor 4–0 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
- 18 December 2024Esenler Erokspor 1–2 İstanbulsporTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: İstanbulspor and Esenler Erokspor
İstanbulspor
GoalsAssists
- Alieu Cham41
Esenler Erokspor
GoalsAssists
- G. Kanga51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Esenler Erokspor won 1–0 at İstanbulspor. The model had made a win for Esenler Erokspor its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Guélor Kanga 20' for Esenler Erokspor. On expected goals it finished 0.61–1.11.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave İstanbulspor a 42.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 36.9% after a win, 43.7% after a draw, 48.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.5%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.
For Esenler Erokspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.3% going in: 9.3% after a win, 11.2% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.3%, 3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.