Iğdır FK vs Batman Petrolspor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Iğdır FK 2-1 Batman Petrolspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Iğdır FK, 25% draw, 27% Batman Petrolspor — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Iğdır FK at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Iğdır FK vs Batman Petrolspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29J. SzumskiG
- 61S. AsanD
- 5A. ÖztürkD
- 18L. KouagbaD
- 28S. GönülD
- 58G. KayaM
- 21D. ErdoğanM
- 24G. CrociataM
- 33F. Afena-GyanF
- 9A. ÇolakF
- 17S. GürlerF
- 22A. SelviD
- 2B. MoğultayD
- 7M. CamaraF
- 10L. BacunaM
- 1T. TepeG
- 11Malik YilmazF
- 44L. CaliskanM
- 19Ö. ÖzcanF
- 4A. ÃztürkD
- 25Ç. AkbabaG
- 11O. ImeriD
- 4M. MertD
- 21DóriaD
- 53M. AlbayrakD
- 34M. CissokhoM
- 77BennyM
- 6Jo Jin-HoM
- 26B. ÇağıranM
- 7M. BironM
- 79G. AltıparmakF
- 27Ö. ArtanD
- 5E. AydoğanM
- 46Devran BozardicD
- 15DavidF
- 8O. GürbulakM
- 17G. KaradenizM
- 10PedrinhoF
- 3Y. SubaşıD
- 13B. TetikG
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 | Batman Petrolspor | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Iğdır FK and Batman Petrolspor
Iğdır FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Batman Petrolspor
GoalsAssists
- Pedrinho50
- M. Biron42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Iğdır FK beat Batman Petrolspor 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Iğdır FK at 48%. The goals: Giovanni Crociata 20' for Iğdır FK, Serdar Gürler 35' for Iğdır FK, Metehan Mert 45+2' for Batman Petrolspor. Sent off: Mücahit Albayrak (Batman Petrolspor) 23'. On expected goals it finished 0.80–0.66.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Iğdır FK a 25.9% chance to finish in the top four: 29.1% after a win, 24.1% after a draw, 19.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.1%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.
For Batman Petrolspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 19.0% going in: 24.7% after a win, 18.7% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.5%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Iğdır FK v Batman Petrolspor has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is Iğdır FK's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Iğdır FK win48%▲ +4
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Batman Petrolspor win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.