11 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 1. Lig prediction & result

Timsah Park, Bursa
Referee: Fatih Tokail
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Bursaspor 1-2 Mardin 1969.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bursaspor, 29% draw, 22% Mardin 1969 — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bursaspor at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bursaspor3%Draw94%Mardin 19693%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Kerim Alıcı
21'
⚽Tonio Teklić
Zeki Yavru
25'
Ivan Saranic
38'
🔁Lewis Bakerout: Eyüp Akcan
45'
🔁Emir Kaan Gultekinout: Baran Başyiğit
45'
🔁Ivan Saranicout: Hüseyin Maldar
45'
Alperen Babacan
47'
49'
Uğur Adem Gezer
62'
Tonio Teklić
64'
🔁Kerim Alıcıout: Eray Korkmaz
72'
🔁M. Şengülout: Berkay Dogan
72'
🔁Olarenwaju Kayodeout: O. Yıldırım
🔁B. Gökout: Ertuğrul Ersoy
80'
⚽Kelechi Iheanacho
81'
85'
🔁Đorđe Denićout: Mallik Wilks
85'
🔁Tonio Teklićout: Emre Taşdemir
M. Er
87'
90+3'
Baba Alhassan
90+4'
⚽Zdravko Dimitrovassist: Emre Taşdemir
90+5'
Zdravko Dimitrov
Kerem Matışlı
90+7'
90+7'
Baba Alhassan

Match stats — Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969

75%Possession25%
28Shots4
7On target2
7Corners2
2.2xG0.4

Goals against chances

Bursaspor1 from 2.20 xGless than the chances were worth
Mardin 19692 from 0.40 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bursaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 98K. MatisliG
  • 18Z. YavruD
  • 24A. BabacanD
  • 5Emirhan BaşyiğitD
  • 93B. GökD
  • 42L. BakerM
  • 6J. ElitimM
  • 80I. ŠaranićM
  • 9E. GültekinM
  • 73A. BoutrahM
  • 14K. ỊheanachọF
Substitutes
  • 34E. AkcanM
  • 52T. AydoğanM
  • 27T. BayramovD
  • 20B. BaşyiğitF
  • 77R. BerişbekD
  • 4E. ErsoyD
  • 81A. GeldiF
  • 39A. KıvançG
  • 66H. MaldarD
Coach: M. Er
Mardin 1969 4-4-2
  • 1E. KardeşlerG
  • 27K. AlıcıD
  • 25M. ŞengülD
  • 15U. GezerD
  • 3N. YardımcıD
  • 91T. TeklićM
  • 16A. KabakM
  • 42B. AlhassanM
  • 10Z. DimitrovM
  • 9O. KayodeF
  • 8Đ. DenićF
Substitutes
  • 29Ö. KahveciG
  • 33E. TaşdemirD
  • 77D. TaşkanF
  • 47M. WilksF
  • 45O. YıldırımF
  • 7Ş. ÇetinM
  • 19A. ÜlükF
  • 64B. DoğanD
  • 11B. BalatM
Coach: Ivaylo Petev

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Bursaspor1410223012+1832
4Mardin 1969147431913+625

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969

  • 4 April 2026Bursaspor 2–0 Mardin 19692. Lig
  • 6 December 2025Mardin 1969 1–2 Bursaspor2. Lig

Leading scorers: Bursaspor and Mardin 1969

Bursaspor

GoalsAssists

  • K. Ịheanachọ173

Mardin 1969

GoalsAssists

  • O. Kayode52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mardin 1969 won 2–1 at Bursaspor. The model had leaned towards a win for Bursaspor at 49% and given a win for Mardin 1969 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Tonio Teklić 21' for Mardin 1969, Kelechi Iheanacho 81' for Bursaspor, Zdravko Dimitrov 90+4' for Mardin 1969. Sent off: M. Er (Bursaspor) 87', Baba Alhassan (Mardin 1969) 90+7'. On expected goals it finished 2.20–0.40.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bursaspor a 44.4% chance to finish top of the regular season: 48.7% after a win, 41.1% after a draw, 35.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.9%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.

For Mardin 1969 the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.4% going in: 22.2% after a win, 17.7% after a draw, 13.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.2%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bursaspor v Mardin 1969 has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 46% / 30% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 29% / 22%: the biggest move is Bursaspor's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Bursaspor win49%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Mardin 1969 win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.