Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K. 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Kayserispor 3-2 Manisa F.K..
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Kayserispor, 26% draw, 22% Manisa F.K. — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Kayserispor at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35G. DeğirmenciG
- 7M. UçarD
- 4S. GülerD
- 3J. TabidzeD
- 77C. ŞenD
- 28Mamadi CamaráM
- 8S. KurtM
- 61G. SağlamM
- 10B. KeserF
- 27D. MorenoF
- 97T. SeferiF
- 16Deniz Eren DonmezerG
- 88M. DulcaM
- 5K. CihanD
- 6C. AkpınarM
- 17M. GöçkanD
- 9F. HasaniF
- 38Ataol KarapinarM
- 11E. KemaloğluM
- 22D. RaduD
- 1V. KarakuşG
- 22K. YurdakulD
- 5C. HérelleD
- 45Ada IbikD
- 27Y. GürelerD
- 60B. TouréM
- 20Y. BenrahouM
- 6A. ÇankayaM
- 23J. AnzianiM
- 7Y. TalumM
- 9C. SyllaF
- 13Egemen YayliG
- 70A. VargasF
- 11N. LeminaM
- 2Yunus Emre KöseD
- 3O. KaynakF
- 17Osman KahramanF
- 4F. İnalD
- 24Y. DursunM
- 25A. SenF
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kayserispor | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 11 | +22 | 30 |
| 17 | Manisa F.K. | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kayserispor vs Manisa F.K.
- 19 December 2019Manisa F.K. 3–3 KayserisporTürkiye Kupası
- 5 December 2019Kayserispor 3–2 Manisa F.K.Türkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Kayserispor and Manisa F.K.
Kayserispor
GoalsAssists
- T. Seferi102
- D. Moreno101
- F. Hasani50
Manisa F.K.
GoalsAssists
- J. Anziani81
- C. Sylla72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kayserispor beat Manisa F.K. 3–2. The model had made a win for Kayserispor its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Benhur Keser 38' for Kayserispor, Daniel Moreno 52' for Kayserispor, Atakan Rıdvan Çankaya 54' for Manisa F.K., Cheikne Sylla 87' for Manisa F.K., Murat Cem Akpinar 90+3' for Kayserispor. Sent off: Cheikne Sylla (Manisa F.K.) 90'. On expected goals it finished 1.57–1.51.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kayserispor a 56.1% chance to finish in the top four: 60.6% after a win, 52.6% after a draw, 48.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.6%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.
For Manisa F.K. the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 13.6% going in: 7.5% after a win, 12.4% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.1%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Kayserispor v Manisa F.K. has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Kayserispor's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Kayserispor win52%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Manisa F.K. win22%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.