17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bradford vs Stevenage League One prediction & result

Valley Parade, Bradford
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Bradford 2-0 Stevenage.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Bradford, 35% draw, 27% Stevenage — fair odds of 2.63, 2.86 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bradford at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bradford99%Draw1%Stevenage0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

53'
🔁Wanya Marcalout: Ben Broggio
🔁Kayden Jacksonout: Corey O'Keeffe
57'
🔁Jake Beesleyout: Nick Powell
57'
🔁Bobby Pointonout: Stephen Humphrys
65'
🔁Adam Phillipsout: Will Swan
65'
65'
🔁Matthew Smithout: Louis Thompson
66'
🔁O. Sandersonout: Michael Mellon
79'
Daniel Phillips
⚽Antoni Sarcevic (pen)
79'
Callumm Connolly
81'
82'
🔁Josh Magennisout: Terry·Taylor
82'
🔁Daniel Phillipsout: Phoenix Patterson
⚽Will Swan
87'
🔁Antoni Sarcevicout: Macauley Gillesphey
90+7'

Match stats — Bradford vs Stevenage

56%Possession44%
13Shots12
2On target1
9Corners3
1.84xG1.01

Goals against chances

Bradford2 from 1.84 xGabout what the chances were worth
Stevenage0 from 1.01 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bradford 3-4-2-1
  • 21J. McCrackenG
  • 28M. PenningtonD
  • 15A. BaldwinD
  • 16George Christopher John PrattD
  • 19K. JacksonM
  • 10A. SarcevicM
  • 6C. ConnollyM
  • 3I. TourayM
  • 8A. PhillipsM
  • 23B. PointonM
  • 9J. BeesleyF
Substitutes
  • 22Kieran MorganM
  • 27C. O'KeeffeD
  • 25N. PowellM
  • 1C. DawsonG
  • 5M. GillespheyD
  • 24W. SwanF
  • 11S. HumphrysF
Coach: M. Duff
Stevenage 4-4-1-1
  • 1T. SetfordG
  • 2L. James-WildinD
  • 15T. VancootenD
  • 5C. PiergianniD
  • 14S. EarleyD
  • 18O. SandersonM
  • 8D. PhillipsM
  • 24M. SmithM
  • 25Wanya MarçalM
  • 10D. KempM
  • 9J. MagennisF
Substitutes
  • 16K. CaseyD
  • 28M. MellonF
  • 44P. PattersonF
  • 7T. TaylorM
  • 23L. ThompsonM
  • 27B. BroggioF
  • 12D. BardenG
Coach: A. Revell

Form going into Bradford vs Stevenage

Bradford

League One

  • D0-0Leyton Orient10 October 2026

Stevenage

League One

  • W1-0Wigan10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Bradford13643108+222
16Stevenage124441713+416

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bradford vs Stevenage

  • 11 April 2026Bradford 0–1 StevenageLeague One
  • 25 October 2025Stevenage 1–1 BradfordLeague One
  • 11 February 2023Stevenage 2–3 BradfordLeague Two
  • 17 September 2022Bradford 3–0 StevenageLeague Two
  • 8 February 2022Stevenage 0–1 BradfordLeague Two

The result against the call

Bradford beat Stevenage 2–0. The model had made a win for Bradford its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Antoni Sarcevic (penalty) 79' for Bradford, Will Swan 87' for Bradford. On expected goals it finished 1.84–1.01.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bradford a 25.4% chance to finish in the top four: 29.4% after a win, 23.5% after a draw, 20.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.4%, 4 points higher than before the match.

For Stevenage the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 9.5% going in: 12.5% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 7.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.8%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.