17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Leicester vs Doncaster League One prediction & result

King Power Stadium, Leicester
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Leicester 2-1 Doncaster.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Leicester, 26% draw, 21% Doncaster — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Leicester at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Luke Thomas
17'
⚽John Lundstramassist: Warren O'Hora
45+1'
57'
Alfie May
58'
🔁Isaac Hutchinsonout: Brandon Hanlan
59'
jay mcgrath
⚽K. Doyleassist: Luke Thomas
61'
65'
Leon Ayinde
69'
🔁Leon Ayindeout: Hakeeb Adelakun
69'
🔁T. Nixonout: Bayley McCann
69'
🔁George Broadbentout: Will Keane
🔁Samuel Charles Braybrookeout: Conor Chaplin
71'
🔁K. Doyleout: Liam Cullen
79'
84'
⚽Warren O'Hora (OG)
85'
🔁Sean Grehanout: Harry Clifton
🔁William Thomas-Alvesout: Olabade Aluko
89'

Match stats — Leicester vs Doncaster

54%Possession46%
14Shots15
7On target3
6Corners7
1.8xG0.62

Goals against chances

Leicester2 from 1.80 xGabout what the chances were worth
Doncaster1 from 0.62 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Leicester 4-1-4-1
  • 29A. McCarthyG
  • 16W. O'HoraD
  • 15H. SouttarD
  • 5C. OkoliD
  • 33L. ThomasD
  • 25L. PageM
  • 37W. AlvesM
  • 36S. BraybrookeM
  • 6J. LundstramM
  • 27K. DoyleM
  • 17E. RiisF
Substitutes
  • 8C. ChaplinF
  • 32O. AlukoD
  • 14B. De Cordova-ReidF
  • 20H. HowellF
  • 11L. CullenF
  • 24I. KangasniemiD
  • 21F. RavizzoliG
Coach: Russell Martin
Doncaster 3-4-2-1
  • 1Tommy SimkinG
  • 27S. GrehanD
  • 12N. ByrneD
  • 6J. McGrathD
  • 11L. AyindeM
  • 22R. GottsM
  • 8G. BroadbentM
  • 16T. NixonM
  • 4O. BaileyM
  • 21I. HutchinsonM
  • 10A. MayF
Substitutes
  • 47H. AdelakunF
  • 42J. ClarkeG
  • 15H. CliftonM
  • 9B. HanlanF
  • 18W. KeaneF
  • 25B. McCannD
  • 20D. RobinsonM
Coach: G. McCann

Form going into Leicester vs Doncaster

Leicester

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Peterborough10 October 2026

Doncaster

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Burton Albion10 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Luton3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Leicester135442219+319
21Doncaster133371422-812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Leicester vs Doncaster

  • 3 May 2014Leicester 1–0 DoncasterChampionship
  • 5 October 2013Doncaster 1–0 LeicesterChampionship
  • 7 April 2012Leicester 4–0 DoncasterChampionship
  • 17 December 2011Doncaster 2–1 LeicesterChampionship

Leading scorers: Leicester and Doncaster

Leicester

GoalsAssists

  • E. Riis61

Doncaster

No player in League One's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Leicester beat Doncaster 2–1. The model had made a win for Leicester its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: John Lundstram 45+1' for Leicester, K. Doyle 61' for Leicester, Warren O'Hora (own goal) 84' for Doncaster. On expected goals it finished 1.80–0.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leicester a 30.8% chance to finish in the top four: 33.0% after a win, 27.3% after a draw, 26.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.0%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

For Doncaster the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 14.2% going in: 9.9% after a win, 13.0% after a draw, 15.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.6%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Leicester v Doncaster has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Leicester's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Leicester win53%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Doncaster win21%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.