17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Swindon Town vs Walsall League Two prediction & result

County Ground, Swindon
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Swindon Town 1-1 Walsall.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Swindon Town, 29% draw, 36% Walsall — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Walsall at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Swindon Town3%Draw93%Walsall4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Aaron Drinanassist: Stephan Negru
5'
45'
🔁Ryan Leakout: Elicha Ahui
55'
⚽Taione Richard Evumena Sodje
59'
L. Grant
🔁antwoine hackfordout: Louis Millard
61'
🔁Joseph Hungboout: Matthew Virtue-Thick
61'
🔁Ollie Clarkeout: Joe Snowdon
62'
69'
🔁Isaac Mooreout: Charlie Crew
🔁Anthony Mundaout: Jaylan Pearman
76'
James Ball
77'
🔁James Ballout: Kaelan Majekodunmi
80'
81'
🔁Courtney Alphonso Clarkeout: Lewis Simper
81'
🔁Mason·Hancockout: James Furlong
85'
🔁Taione Richard Evumena Sodjeout: Andrew Dallas

Match stats — Swindon Town vs Walsall

38%Possession62%
17Shots18
5On target8
2Corners10
1.91xG1.75

Goals against chances

Swindon Town1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth
Walsall1 from 1.75 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Swindon Town 3-4-2-1
  • 1C. RipleyG
  • 6J. BallD
  • 5S. NegruD
  • 8O. ClarkeD
  • 2M. ClarkM
  • 27A. MundaM
  • 25J. ThomsonM
  • 34B. KirkmanM
  • 29A. HackfordM
  • 15J. HungboM
  • 23A. DrinanF
Substitutes
  • 21K. MajekodunmiD
  • 7T. NicholsM
  • 22J. PearmanM
  • 19J. SnowdonM
  • 24M. Virtue-ThickM
  • 12Lewis Moore WardG
  • 39L. MillardF
Coach: Ian Holloway
Walsall 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. WardG
  • 25D. SkuraD
  • 4J. ConnollyD
  • 26R. LeakD
  • 3M. HancockD
  • 6S. SpranglerM
  • 15Isaac MooreM
  • 17Courtney ClarkeM
  • 7Taione Richard Evumena SodjeM
  • 11R. SmithM
  • 19A. PressleyF
Substitutes
  • 29J. FurlongD
  • 10L. SimperM
  • 31Tom WoosterG
  • 8C. CrewM
  • 22E. AhuiD
  • 9A. DallasF
  • 37A. AdomahF
Coach: Lee Grant

Form going into Swindon Town vs Walsall

Swindon Town

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Crewe10 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Rochdale3 October 2026
  • D1-1Accrington Stanley26 September 2026

Walsall

League Two

  • D1-1away to Fleetwood Town10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Swindon Town155461621-519
6Walsall135712112+922

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Walsall

  • 6 April 2026Swindon Town 2–1 WalsallLeague Two
  • 2 August 2025Walsall 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 1 March 2025Walsall 0–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 17 August 2024Swindon Town 0–4 WalsallLeague Two
  • 16 April 2024Walsall 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two

Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Walsall

Swindon Town

GoalsAssists

  • A. Drinan91

Walsall

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pressley90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Swindon Town and Walsall drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Walsall at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Aaron Drinan 5' for Swindon Town, Taione Richard Evumena Sodje 55' for Walsall. On expected goals it finished 1.91–1.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Swindon Town a 19.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.2% after a win, 18.8% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 18.8%.

For Walsall the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 25.1% going in: 29.2% after a win, 23.4% after a draw, 21.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.4%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.