12 October 2026, 14:15 UTC

Burgos vs Granada CF Segunda División prediction & result

Burgos
Referee: Salvador Lax
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Burgos 0-1 Granada CF.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Burgos, 28% draw, 22% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Burgos at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burgos0%Draw5%Granada CF95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña
17'
25'
⚽Pedro Alemañ Sernaassist: Sergio Rodelas Pintor
30'
Rubén Alcaraz
Pablo Galdames
44'
David Gonzalez
54'
55'
🔁Mario Jiménez Gambínout: Owen Emeka
55'
🔁Sergio Rodelas Pintorout: Jorge Pascual
59'
•Alberto Flores López
🔁Alejandro Lizancos Saldañaout: Alberto Dadie
64'
🔁Pablo Galdamesout: José Gragera
64'
🔁Curroout: Jon Karrikaburu
65'
68'
🔁Diego Varela Pampínout: Baïla Diallo
68'
🔁Sergio Lópezout: Pau Casadesús
🔁Álex Forésout: Santiago Lencina
77'
🔁Unai Vencedorout: Victor Mollejo
83'
83'
🔁José Manuel Arnáizout: Chinaza Onouha
90'
•Baïla Diallo
90'
Jorge Pascual
Alberto Dadie
90+3'
90+4'
⚽Jorge Pascual (pen)

Match stats — Burgos vs Granada CF

64%Possession36%
23Shots7
6On target3
4Corners0
1.14xG2.32

Goals against chances

Burgos0 from 1.14 xGless than the chances were worth
Granada CF1 from 2.32 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Burgos 4-4-2
  • 13Ander CanteroG
  • 2ÁlexD
  • 15Oier LuengoD
  • 8GregoD
  • 22Brais MartínezD
  • 14David GonzálezM
  • 4P. GaldamesM
  • 12Unai VencedorM
  • 19Javi LlabrésM
  • 9Álex ForésF
  • 16Curro SánchezF
Substitutes
  • 21Fermin GarciaF
  • 23Alberto DadieD
  • 6Sergio GonzálezD
  • 20José GrageraM
  • 1Bruno IribarneG
  • 7Jon KarrikaburuF
  • 24S. LencinasM
  • 36I. MartinezD
  • 11Víctor MollejoF
Coach: Sergio Francisco
Granada CF 4-3-3
  • 1Alberto FloresG
  • 18Sergio LópezD
  • 30Juan José Flores CastroD
  • 5Manu LamaD
  • 16Diego PampínD
  • 8Pedro AlemañM
  • 4Rubén AlcarazM
  • 6GumbauM
  • 7Sergio RodelasF
  • 11José ArnáizF
  • 27M. GambinF
Substitutes
  • 17K. BambaF
  • 2Pau CasadesúsD
  • 35B. DembeleD
  • 22B. DialloD
  • 33A. GarciaD
  • 23B. GimberD
  • 3Diego HormigoD
  • 13Raúl LizoainG
  • 36O. M. ChukwuemekaF
Coach: José Rojo Martín

Form going into Burgos vs Granada CF

Burgos

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Almeria3 October 2026
  • W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
  • W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Oviedo6 September 2026

Granada CF

Segunda División

  • W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026

What these results say

  • Burgos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Burgos147342017+324
7Granada CF127232014+623

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burgos vs Granada CF

  • 16 May 2026Granada CF 0–1 BurgosSegunda División
  • 22 September 2025Burgos 1–1 Granada CFSegunda División
  • 10 January 2025Granada CF 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
  • 29 September 2024Burgos 2–2 Granada CFSegunda División
  • 4 March 2023Burgos 1–3 Granada CFSegunda División

Leading scorers: Burgos and Granada CF

Burgos

GoalsAssists

  • Álex Forés41

Granada CF

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Pascual40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Granada CF won 1–0 at Burgos. The model had leaned towards a win for Burgos at 50% and given a win for Granada CF 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Pedro Alemañ Serna 25' for Granada CF. On expected goals it finished 1.14–2.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burgos a 22.6% chance to finish in the top four: 25.5% after a win, 19.2% after a draw, 16.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.3%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

For Granada CF the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.5% going in: 5.8% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.8%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Burgos v Granada CF has moved

First published on 28 Sep at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is Burgos's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Burgos win50%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Granada CF win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.